As reported by Houses & Holes earlier today, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released labour force data for the month of June, which paints a deteriorating picture of the Australian jobs market.
While the headline unemployment rate rose by only 0.1% to 5.2%, it is the internals of the release that are concerning.
First, the economy shed -27,000 jobs in June, -35,500 of which were full-time. And because the participation rate also fell -0.3%, the losses in jobs were not fully captured as a rise in the headline unemployment rate (see below chart).
You can also see the loss of jobs momentum in the below chart, which shows employment growth flat lining since November 2010:
At the state level, only Western Australia and New South Wales have recorded positive jobs growth over the past year (see below chart).
Which is also reflected in unemployment rates, with Western Australia and New South Wales outperforming the national average (see below chart).
More worryingly, aggregate hours worked across the economy has been falling recently (see below charts).
With all states, except Western Australia, recording losses over the past year (see below chart).
Despite the low headline unemployment rate, Australia’s employment situation has clearly worsened outside of Western Australia. And with the unofficial Roy Morgan Research measure of unemployment moving up recently (see below chart), it’s likely only a matter of time before the worsening labour market is reflected in the headline ABS unemployment rate as well.
Twitter: Leith van Onselen. Leith is the Chief Economist of Macro Investor, Australia’s independent investment newsletter covering trades, stocks, property and yield. Click for a free 21 day trial.
