Speculative vacancies rise in Melbourne

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By Leith van Onselen

Earthsharing Australia has released the 2012 Speculative Vacancies in Melbourne Report (below), which shows a vacancy rate in Melbourne of 5.90%, which is a slight increase from 2010, although still below that recorded for 2008 and 2009 (see below table).

According to the report, there is an estimated 90,700 vacant houses in Melbourne. Vacancy hotspots include: Docklands 14.1%, Williams Landing 13.5% and Truganina 12.9% where construction has clearly outstripped demand; and a wide swathe of western suburbs with vacancies around 10%.

The survey measures actual activity based on water consumption data supplied by two of Melbourne’s retailers, City West Water and Yarra Valley Water.

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Analysis of 1,015,599 residential properties showed that 60,103 properties (5.9%) were potentially vacant over the study period, having consumed less than 50 litres per day. This figure rises to 90,730 when extrapolated across the entire Melbourne residential property market. A large number of commercial properties (24.2%) were also potentially vacant in the suburbs where data was provided.

The findings in the survey differ significantly from commonly quoted Real Estate institute of Victoria rental vacancy statistics, which do not include properties held by speculators (i.e. kept deliberately vacant) and do not include properties being drip fed onto the market in ‘staged releases’.

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Speculative Vacancies 2012 Report Phil Soos

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.