Peak oil no more?

Those who keep professing that “peak oil” is just around the corner or has already been reached should take a look at this Harvard paper (ht John A). The author (Leonardo Maugeri) analyzed oil exploration and development projects field by field globally to determine how oil production is expected to grow. Assuming oil price stays above $70 per barrel, here is what the increase in production will look like by 2020 (in Million Barrels per Day).

Source: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University

Here is the breakdown of changes in production by country. The largest capacity increases will come from Iraq (whose reserves are thought to be the largest in the world), followed by (interestingly enough) the US, Canada, and Brazil.

Source: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University (click to enlarge)

Enjoy!

Oil – The Next Revolution

Share

About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.