Well, how about that! National Accounts for the March quarter are out and BOOM! A quarter on quarter increase of 1.3%. An annual increase of 4.3%.
Now, the annual increase does overstate things to an extent, given it contains the rebound quarter from last year’s floods. But even so, if you cut a half point off, this remains impressive. In a world of fading growth, very much so.
The growth was concentrated in household consumption, up 0.9% versus 0.3% in December. It was the largest jump since December 2007. Private investment was 0.8% versus -0.2 in December. These managed to offset a 0.5% decline in next exports.
The dollar bounced .50 cents on the announcement and stocks got a 15 point fillip. These are relatively muted responses given the blowout quarter. My guess is that markets have digested this as an unsustainable figure, based upon pent up demand across the happier times of the first quarter.
Nonetheless, time to go long bullhawk rhetoric!
More to come…
Update: Dollar up 70 cents now so some exuberance creeping in and perhaps pushing out of rate cuts…