Preliminary estimates for April indicate that the index fell by 1.6 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, after rising by 0.5 per cent in March (revised). The largest contributors to the fall in April were decreases in the prices of coal, oil, gold and aluminium. In Australian dollar terms, the index rose by 0.4 per cent in April.
Over the past year, the index has fallen by 4.2 per cent in SDR terms. Much of this fall has been due to falls in the prices of metallurgical coal, iron ore, aluminium and wheat. The index has fallen by 5.2 per cent in Australian dollar terms over the past year.
As indicated in previous releases, preliminary estimates for iron ore, coking coal and thermal coal export prices are being used for recent months, based on market information.
Nothing here to alter my projection for trade deficits into the foreseeable future.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
