by Chris Becker
Remember to read “Trading Week“, published Saturday morning, to put these events and ideas in context.
Asian markets are having a mixed day, reflecting the mixed local and regional data. The local market, the S&P/ASX200, surged in the afternoon finishing just below 4300 points, or up 0.48% to 4295 points.
The ASX200 is still below the 200 day moving average, with support below at 4200 points (particularly viewable on the weekly chart) to watch.
In other Asian markets, the Nikkei 225 continued its downward move, but closed just above the psychologically important 9000 point barrier, falling 0.4% with the Hang Seng also down, by almost 1% on the Chinese trade surplus figures. The Shanghai Composite by contrast is up slightly, by 0.2% currently and still below its short term trendline from late March and the 200 day moving average.
The big news of the day was the suprising unemployment print, with the AUD surging to above 1.01 against the USD and a sell off after the weak Chinese trade data:
But let’s put this into perspective, the dollar is still down over 7 cents since the February double top. And with a likely risk off move continuing, this is a reaction to local data only (which has no significance in comparison to macro moves overseas) and will likely be short lived.
Aussie bonds boom/bubble continued today – yields falling 2 more pips, now at 3.34% for the 10 year bond as supply continues to tighten…
Commodities were effectively flat and precious metals took a breather, with gold up around $5USD an ounce but still below $1600USD an ounce to $1595. In AUD terms gold was down $5 due to the rising dollar to $1574 AUD per ounce.
The Futures
European equity futures are pointing to flat or slightly higher opens, but all eyes will be on bond markets, as peripheral bonds – particularly Spanish, are at critical points with the ongoing Euro debt crisis.
The dataflow tonight will be thick and fast – in Euroland, (kind of), the Bank of England meets to discuss rates, and is likely to leave them unchanged at 0.5%, and also not to extend its own QE program. Following China’s trade balance figures today, the US will announce its own international trade figures tonight for March, then weekly jobless claims before The Bernank makes a speech. About something.
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