Macro Wrap
So what happened on Friday night markets and over the weekend that looks like shaping your week ahead? I’ll post an updated Economic Calendar shortly for the week ahead, but lets have a quick look at the Macro Movers in Markets:
The big data highlight was the advance GDP numbers from the US for the first quarter, which unsurprisingly showed the US economy only grew at a 2.2% pace, well below consensus at 2.5%, and slowing the pace from late last year- here’s the chart:
Equity markets particularly were encouraged instead by earnings reports, not macro data (even though its the unsustainable US deficit and monetary easing driving those earnings…hellllooo), and lifted across both sides of the Atlantic.
See charts of all major markets at bottom of post.
Bonds:
- US 10 year Treasuries were steady remaining below 2% yield at 1.93%
- German 10 year bunds were sold off very slightly, yields up 2 pips to 1.69%, UK 10 years similar, yields rising 2 pips to 2.12%
- Spanish 10 year bonds remain shaky, and sold off by 4 pips, yield rising to 5.82%
Currencies:
- The USD started well but was quickly sold off as equities rose, the Dollar Index peaking above 79.2 before slumping to 78.7
- Euro jumped above 1.32 against King Dollar, building on a 3 week rally:
- AUD was ebullient again, bursting out of the gates above 1.04 against the USD, again dismissing its domestic deflation and lower rates meme, to be at 1.0465 at the start of Asian trading.
Equities:
- The broader Euro Stoxx 50 was up nearly 1% at 2344 points with the FTSE 100 gaining 0.5% at 5777 alongside the German DAX up 0.9% to 6801points.
- The peripherals surged, with Spanish IBEX up 1.6%, FTSE MIB up 1.8%, but for context, both are barely above their GFC low
- The US bourses were relatively flat, the S&P 500 closing up 0.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.2%, whilst the NASDAQ 100 up 0.6%, with Apple (AAPL) falling nearly $5 to be just above $600USD
Commodities:
- The CRB Index continues to surge and defy the bears (look at my analysis here at Trading Week) rising to 305 points
- Oil prices were mixed again, with ICE Brent flat at $119.62 per barrel and NYMEX WTI crude up 0.3% to $104.93 USD per barrel, whilst natural gas continues to be very volatile, up 3% to $2.18
- Gold (USD) surged at the open of NYMEX trading, jumping above $1665 or almost $15USD an ounce, before tapering off:
- Iron ore import prices into China recovered from some noisy falls earlier in the week gaining nearly $US2 per tonne to $US 145.40 (see charts below)
Today in Asia
- Data today locally includes the private TD Securities monthly inflation, HIA new home sales and RBA monthly release of private sector credit.
- The futures are pointing to a solid open for the ASX200, probably up 30 points to 4400 points.
- Click here for our economic calendar.
Market Charts
| AUD_USD | EUR_USD |
| US DOLLAR INDEX | GOLD USD |
| S&P500 | VIX VOLATILITY |
| DAX 30 | SPOT BRENT CRUDE |
| RJ/CRB COMMODITY INDEX | CHINA IMPORT IRON ORE |
Sovereign 10 year bond yields
| UK | USA | ||||||||
|
JAPAN | GREECE | IRELAND | SPAIN | ITALY | FRANCE | GERMANY | PORTUGAL | AUSTRALIA |
|