The day the earth stood still

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David Llewellyn-Smith
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)


  1. “There was no data this week to suggest any imminent further interest rate cuts. Indeed, the RBA has us right where it wants us: rational and restrained.”


  2. I’m also in the RBA doing OK camp. As illustrated there is a raft of data available, constantly fluctuating small degrees, often conflicting – definitely time for the RBA not to be reactionary and maintain a steady hand. What the banks do is another question!

    David Uren in The Oz today also writes of the role of resources development in the current capex figures and I suspect is inclined to your view. As you know, I am not and continue to see little alternative on offer other than ‘run with resources’. The pipeline for the next year is colossal but much will be dependent on global conditions – which to date have held sufficiently. And despite what critics say, flow on benefits from the boom are occurring. I’m keen to see (if the boom holds) we successfully adapt and transition, which you tentatively pointed to yesterday.

  3. “raging credit crunch in the periphery” (of Europe) . I’m not sure where you are getting your data, but loans by Italian banks to the private sector and households are running at 2% and the lender survey isnt indicating any major tightening or standards or expected decrease in deman. Not great but not a raging credit crunch.

  4. It seems from my analysis of table 39 of ABS 8731 that the growth from December 2011 to January 2012 is in the 99th percentile of YOY growth since July 1974, Largely because January 2011 was a very low level of total approvals.

    However the Vcitorian number seems quite amazing, with a 75% increase in approvals over the prior month and YOY growth of 85.6%. South Australia is equally amazing with MOM growth of 1043.8% and YOY growth of 774.2%.

    Does anyone know what drove the jump in Victorian and SA approvals ($ terms)?

    Or should we expect revision?