Fearful Symmetry sees a slowing India

Advertisement

A month ago Fearful Symmetry spent the bulk of this chronicle detailing the weakening trend in the partial domestic activity data, highlighting the weak international macro-financial and real economy backdrop and underlining the threat posed to the domestic investment cycle by protracted period of soft capital inflows.The September quarter national accounts provided some early justification for Fearful Symmetry’s concerns. Real GDP expanded a meek 6.9% yr, down from 7.7% yr in the previous quarter and the year average rate of 8% recorded as of June. At a broad industry level, each of the three major segments decelerated. At the next level of detail, manufacturing was the major source of weakness, decelerating from 7.2%yr to just 2.7%yr the quarterly average of 3.1% reported in the industrial production series). Trade, transport and communications activity also slowed, while resilience was evident in the other major services categories. Construction improved a little from a weak starting point, while mining and agri output slowed.

er201112BullFearfulSymmetry

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.