ECRI sticks to US recession call

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The CNBC folk gave the ECRI chief, Lakshman Achuthan, a pretty serious grilling last night. I can’t say he held up that well. Not because he lost any argument but because there wasn’t one. The ECRI methodology is a black box. As I’ve said many times, I’m quite suspicious of “Leading Indexes” in general, at least the ones I know of, because there appears to be nothing leading about them. I still think the ECRI will probably be proved right about a US recession next year on US fiscal cuts and European contagion but it would be nice to understand their confidence a little better.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.