APRA released its monthly banking statistics today and the recent spike in ADI deposit growth appears to be waning with September deposits growing $12 billion versus the peak in August at $27 billion. Here is a table of this year’s totals and growth rates:
Here’s a chart of international deposits from the RBA’s B12 tables:
As you can see, in the first half of the year (to June), international deposits climbed $34 billion. This mean local deposits actually declined $12 billion over the same period. What is equally obvious is that during the GFC period a significant portion of the international deposit base flowed quickly outwards. It makes me wonder how much of this segment is simply playing the Australian dollar and interest rate differential.
I am not questioning that there has not been a big inflow of deposits over the past three months, which I have corroborated from other sources. But given this RBA data is only quarterly we don’t know how much of this is ‘hot deposits’. It’s a fair bet too that if the recent market rally continues, much of the recent spike will reverse.
