NAB has produced a rather useful guide to next week’s CPI read, which all seem to think will be crucial in determining the August interest rate outcome. Personally, I think there’s little chance of a hike, not least because three days later, when it releases its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, the bank is most likely going to have to slash its growth forecasts. That would be quite a juggling act.
I disagree, therefore, with many of the conclusions in NAB’s document. It is, however, still a useful guide to the process and worth a read.