US Economy


Fox News not fake enough for El Trumpo

This is a classic for the Murdoch haters out there. The Fox News Frankenstein has come back to eat it: [email protected] daytime ratings have completely collapsed. Weekend daytime even WORSE. Very sad to watch this happen, but they forgot what made them successful, what got them there. They forgot the Golden Goose. The biggest difference


El Trumpo siphons cash from election defence fund

El Trumpo doesn’t miss a trick. At Reuters: As President Donald Trump seeks to discredit last week’s election with baseless claims of voter fraud, his team has bombarded his supporters with requests for money to help pay for legal challenges to the results: “The Left will try to STEAL this election!” reads one text. But


El Trumpo sore loser tantrum spreads

So far, US institutions have done well. But there are worrying signs that El Trumpo is hanging on. Via Nine: President Donald Trump’s personal lawyer has confirmed proceedings have begun to sue over alleged “fraudulent ballots”, claiming people will be “shocked” by the findings. Rudy Giuliani tweeted that the Trump campaign has “sued to invalidate


Fake Left Biden readies immigration shock for US workers

Earlier this year, the Economic Policy Institute released research proving that the United States’ temporary skilled visa scheme (H-1B) has been ruthlessly exploited by employers to undercut American wages. The analysis was based on the Department of Labor’s Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey, which constructs a distribution of wages for each occupation in a specific


Previewing US jobs

Via Calculated Risk: On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for October. The consensus is for 600 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 7.6%. • Decennial Census: The decennial Census will subtract 147,311 temporary jobs. • ADP Report: The ADP employment report showed a gain of 365,000 private sector jobs, well below


Is El Trumpo a facist?

Thankfully it appears that Donald El Trumpo is going to fail in his bid to steal the US election. But the attempt throws up an interesting question. What kind of leader is he and where does he fit in the history of political ideology? We know that El Trumpo is a classic populist. That is,


El Trumpo’s virus revenge takes shape

As if the American people have not suffered enough now they must endure El Trumpo’s virus revenge as cases, hospitalisations and deaths all skyrocket: The moving averages are not pretty: As the mortality rate bottoms out: I have every confidence that EL Trumpo will spend his last few months in office aiming to make this


Trump polling surges as he readies coup

He’s on a roll nationally: Especially in the battleground states: Trump’s crucial wins in Florida and Pennsylvania have tightened:   Betting is unmoved: Probably sensibly. But if you’re looking for a clean result then El Trumpo will disappoint, at Axios: President Trump has told confidants he’ll declare victory on Tuesday night if it looks like


How bad is the US virus?

How bad is the US virus? Bad: It looks no better smoothed: Where there has been some improvement is the mortality rates: Hospitalisations have fallen as a ratio of cases versus both first and second waves.  Deaths lag by a month so that ratio is likely to bottom here and begin to rise again. There


Presidential race tightens

Latest polls. At the headline: Battlegrounds: Betting: What if the polls are as wrong this week as they were in 2016? Biden wins, by 538: With the virus still gutting Trump’s interior heartland, it looks over for the White House: More interesting is the senate which has a less complete overlap between swing states and


Virus kills Trump’s chances

More bad news for El Trumpo overnight with The Economist endorsing Joe Biden: Our cover this week  sets out why, if we had a vote, it would go to Joe Biden. The country that elected Donald Trump in 2016 was unhappy and divided. The country he is asking to re-elect him is more unhappy and


How will Trump launch his coup?

Ther latest poll averages have Biden still cruising to a win at the headline level: And battleground states: Plus betting markets: The Economist has also declared its polling for a Democratic senate: We’re all jaded about polls. Watch the below video from FiveThirtyEight. It captures what happened to 2016 polls and how they’ve reformed their


El Trumpo builds polling momentum

The latest polling averages are better El Trumpo: Battleground states have closed the gap a little: Betting is unimpressed: 538 sees an even larger landslide: Probably rightly. There is always a late swing to the incumbent but the gap remains to large and the virus resurgence cannot help El Trumpo: He only has until next


El Trumpo readies election sabotage

This is not and will not cheer markets. Obviously, El Trumpo’s internal polling is saying the same thing as everybody else’s. Big problems and discrepancies with Mail In Ballots all over the USA. Must have final total on November 3rd. — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 26, 2020 As I noted yesterday, El Trumpo is


Borat stings Guliani

I know it’s PR but…well…it’s Borat: The news is appropriate enough: [Rudi] Giuliani went to the hotel room thinking he was being interviewed about the Trump administration’s COVID-19 response. The young woman is flirtatious with him and invites him to the bedroom, which is rigged with hidden cameras. Giuliani then asks for her phone number


Trump closes the gap!

Via RealClear some movement to the incumbent at the headline: Battlegrounds not so much: Betting still all over the joint:   No gap closure at FiveThirtyEight: An embarrassingly Trump worshipping Zero Hedge makes a big deal of registrations: Last week, we published an article detailing a warning from JPMorgan’s top quant Marko Kolanvoci to all those expecting


“Immune” Trump dies of political COVID

What a complete moron…. — Peter van Onselen (@vanOnselenP) October 13, 2020 He may claim to be physically immune but he’s died of political COVID. Headline polls are cooked: Battleground states are cooked: He’s holding on in Texas: But all bets are off: Biden is far ahead of Hilary at the comparable time. Barring


You’re fired! Loser Trump polls sink

The thing about being a “strongman” populist winner is that you need always to be one. If you start to look vulnerable, like a loser on The Apprentice, then the gloss quickly turns to rust as what was formerly teflon-coated rhetoric feels more like secondhand car salesmanship.  That is where El Trumpo is today, via


US raises salary threshold for skilled visas

Earlier this year, the Economic Policy Institute released research showing that the United States’ temporary skilled visa scheme (H1B) has been used by employers to undercut local workers’ wages. The analysis is based upon the Department of Labor’s Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey, which constructs a distribution of wages for each occupation in a specific geographic


Donald Trump is going to lose in a landslide

It’s going to be fun watching the anti-American brigade storm back in its support of the US of A as Donald Trump departs.  That exit is now about as guaranteed as anything ever was in politics. First, let’s consult the polls which are winding hard against him. The 538 poll average swung to Biden post-debate: