Miscellaneous

110

Summer Links: 28 December 2020

Ricketts Point, 1937, Peter Purves Smith, Art Gallery of South Australia   Macro & Markets Future shock: how will Covid change the course of business? – Guardian Chinese economy to overtake US ‘by 2028’ due to Covid – BBC Beyond the coronavirus, global shipping must meet the challenge of climate change – SCMP The year

4

Why have Asian LNG prices gone nuts?

A nice chart from Platts that helps explain a crazed rally in Asian LNG prices for those : The only chart that matters for Asian prices in that lot is the middle bottom. Huge LNG capacity has come off over 2020 and will now rebound. For those potential LNG importers looking on, the JKM price

3

Inner-Melbourne apartments are cruising for a bruising

CoreLogic’s Best of the Best Report paints a dire picture for the inner-city apartment market: Inner-city Melbourne markets are at greater risk through 2021. Strict restrictions on international borders have particularly affected rental demand in the SA4 ‘Melbourne – Inner’ region, which had the highest net overseas migration of any region in Australia in the

8

Leading mortgage index continues surge

Via CoreLogic. Listings flow and stock are very low: The leading mortgage index is at its highest in three years: That said, this is only owner-occupier. Investment mortgages remain weak so I do not expect out of the box price gains unless or until they return and that hangs on immigration.

247

Weekend Links: 5-6 December 2020

‘From the Sand Dunes’ John White, 1899, Art Gallery of South Australia   Macro & Markets More than 400 lawmakers from 34 countries back ‘Make Amazon Pay’ campaign – Reuters Is a post-COVID currency war coming? – Reuters US intelligence head says China is America’s ‘greatest threat’ in rare public warning – SCMP Container Shipping

1

Aussie GDP roars back on free money!

Via the ABS: The Australian economy rose 3.3% in seasonally adjusted chain volume measures Through the year GDP fell 3.8% The terms of trade rose 0.7% Household saving ratio decreased to 18.9% from 22.1% Twas’ mostly a reopening private sector: Except when we realise it was all publicly funded. Thank JobKeeper: Government consumption still boomed:

27

MacroBusiness Links: 1 December, 2020

‘View of Geelong’ 1856, Eugene von Guerard, Geelong Gallery Macro & Markets Just like Trump’s tariffs, China’s trade attack will backfire – Ninefax There’s More Than Wine in Australia-China Trade Tension – Bloomberg, El Erian Americas ‘We’re a Pacific power’: Joe Biden faces pressure to hold hard line of defence against China – SCMP Trump

307

Weekend Links: 28-29 November 2020

‘Desert Landscape’, 1947, Douglas Roberts, Art Gallery of South Australia   Macro & Markets Fed policymakers may give new bond-buying guidance ‘fairly soon’: minutes – Reuters An economic recovery could happen sooner than we think – Ninefax ‘Revenge of the old economy’: Is this the start of the next commodity supercycle? – Ninefax, AEP OPEC

211

Macro Afternoon

  The retracement meme continues as trading positions pullback from extremely overbought levels post the vaccine news across the region with the USD largely unchanged after gaining strength against most of the majors after last night’s US CPI print. Gold is still under enormous pressure here after its big retracement, hovering slightly below the $1880USD

3

Foxtel’s subscriptions boom, revenues bust

One of the biggest structural problems facing Foxtel as it vies to survive in Australia’s increasingly crowded subscription video on demand (SVOD) market is self cannibalisation. In order to compete against cheaper streaming rivals like Netflix, Amazon, Disney and Stan, Foxtel has introduced online offerings, such as its Binge drama package and its Kayo Sports

495

Sunday Supplement: 8 November 2020

‘A Billabong in the Goulburn Valley, Victoria, Australia’ 1878, H.J. Johnstone, Art Gallery of South Australia   Macro & Markets Bond markets should brace for tighter central bank squeeze – Reuters Record low rates are here to stay regardless who sits in the Oval Office. Will that keep markets pumping in the age of Covid-19?

11

Walls close in on Foxtel

There is no doubt that Foxtel has made important strides in securing its long-term future. First, Foxtel has significantly lowered its cost base after axing around 270 permanent jobs at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic. Second, Foxtel has secured vital exclusive content deals, including beating local rival Stan for Warner Bros, WarnerMedia, HBO and

345

Sunday Supplement 1 November 2020

‘McIntosh’s saw mill at Echuca, floodtime’ 1887 JW Curtis, Art Gallery of NSW   Macro & Markets ExxonMobil warns of $30bn writedown of shale assets amid energy price slump – Guardian Charting the Global Economy: Growth Surges in U.S., Euro Area – Bloomberg For Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google business is booming – BBC In

18

Aussie inflation nowhere

Via the ABS comes the CPI: Jun Qtr 2020 to Sep Qtr 2020 Sep Qtr 2019 to Sep Qtr 2020 Weighted average of eight capital cities % change % change All groups CPI 1.6 0.7 Food and non-alcoholic beverages -0.4 3.4 Alcohol and tobacco 1.6 8.1 Clothing and footwear 0.4 -0.5 Housing 0.0 -0.2 Furnishings,

318

Sunday Supplement: 25 October 2020

‘Wheel tracks’ 1970, David Armfield, Art Gallery of NSW    Macro & Markets New World Disorder: will a US-China cold war and Covid-19 finally kill off the United Nations? – SCMP…the UN is face down in the pool… People Fear a Market Crash More Than They Have in Years – NY Times U.S. antitrust case

372

Sunday Supplement: 18 October 2020

‘Rocks Condemned’ 1965, Reinis Zusters, Art Gallery of NSW   Macro & Markets US, China must continue coronavirus stimulus to help recovery from ‘crisis like no other’, IMF’s Georgieva says – SCMP A new coronavirus fear? New strain seen in swine has potential to jump to humans, US study finds – SCMP Top World Bank

305

Sunday Supplement: 11 October 2020

‘Midday, the Wimmera’ 1949, Arthur Boyd, Art Gallery of NSW   Macro & Markets HSBC calls start of a ‘great rebalancing’ as the global economy enters a flatter stage of the recovery – CNBC Scene is set for a ‘generational opportunity’ in equities, strategist says – CNBC ‘Treasuries on steroids’: U.S. banks’ mortgage bond trading

30

Albanese surges into Depressionberg Unstimulus vacuum

Here’s Anthony Albanese budget reply speech: ANTHONY ALBANESE MP LEADER OF THE AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY MEMBER FOR GRAYNDLER BUDGET IN REPLY 2020 HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES PARLIAMENT HOUSE CANBERRA THURSDAY, 8 OCTOBER 2020 My fellow Australians. We live in a great country. Amidst all the chaos and hardship that has shaken our world in 2020 –

370

Sunday Supplement: 4 October 2020

‘Gift Bearers’ 1955, Albert Tucker, Art Gallery of NSW   Macro & Markets Low Taxes Are Never Enough to Attract Wealthy Residents – Bloomberg Climate crisis: Is it time to ditch economic growth? – DW Critical Minerals and the New Geopolitics – Project-Syndicate The Danger of Following the Fed – Project-Syndicate, Issing Don’t disregard potential

188

Sunday Supplement: 27 September 2020

La Perouse, 1947, William Dargie, Art Gallery of NSW   Macro & Markets Australia says world needs to know origins of COVID-19 – Reuters FinCEN Files show banks are not serious enough about beating money laundering – ABC What $2tn in possible corrupt activity reveals about Kleptopia – Guardian…the world is awash with corruption proceeds,

6

Foxtel’s Kayo rises from the ashes

At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, Foxtel’s Kayo Sports was facing an uncertain future. In February, Kayo’s subscriber base had fallen from 402,000 as of November 2019 to 370,000. Then the COVID-19 pandemic hit, pausing sporting events across the world including the AFL and NRL seasons. This led to a surge in cancellation requests,

7

Foxtel gouges Aussie taxpayers

Back in July it came to light that Foxtel – jointly owned by NewsCorp (65%) and Telstra (35%) – would receive $10 million from Australian taxpayers to broadcast “women’s, niche and other under-represented sports”. This came on top of a $30 million grant provided to Foxtel by taxpayers in 2017. This latest taxpayer handout was slammed