New Zealand Economy

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Is Auckland’s housing market rolling over?

By Leith van Onselen Several strings of data suggests that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions targeting investors, which were announced in July 2016, are beginning to have the desired effect of cooling Auckland’s runaway housing market. As noted yesterday, the share of mortgages going to investors has cooled significantly

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New Zealand First doubles down against population ponzi

By Leith van Onselen I noted last week how anti-immigration party, New Zealand First, has increased its voter support from 3% to 10.5%, according to the latest Roy Morgan polling, meaning that it could hold the balance of power and decide who forms the next government. Well, this morning New Zealand First’s leader, Winston Peters,

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NZ unemployment tumbles to 4.9%

By Leith van Onselen Statistics New Zealand has this morning released its labour force data for the March quarter, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.9% from 5.2%. The key changes are outlined in the below table: As shown above, employment rose 1.2% in the March quarter to be up 5.7% over the year, whereas

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NZ Investor lending down 30% Year-on-year

By Leith van Onselen Data released yesterday by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) revealed that property investor lending has cooled materially since the RBNZ implemented new loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions targeting investors, which officially came into effect on 1 October, although banks began informally applying the rules since they were first announced in

5

Auckland’s housing shortage continues to worsen

By Leith van Onselen The New Zealand National Government’s single-minded focus on solving Auckland’s housing crisis by boosting supply continues to take a hammering. Today, Statistics New Zealand released figures showing that construction momentum has slowed across Auckland, with just 942 dwelling consents issued in March and 10,199 issued over the year: As noted by

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Record immigration creates more pain in Auckland

By Leith van Onselen Statistics New Zealand has released its permanent & long-term migration figures for March 2017, which revealed that annual net permanent and long-term migration into New Zealand hit another all-time high 71,932 people: According to Statistics New Zealand, migrant arrivals numbered 129,500 in the March 2017 year, versus departures of 57,600. Visa

23

Immigration backlash swells in New Zealand

By Leith van Onselen The New Zealand National Government’s single-minded focus on solving the nation’s housing crisis by boosting dwelling supply continues to fail. In 2016, New Zealand added a whopping 100,000 residents, more than 70% of which came from net migration: The bubble hotspot of Auckland has been the primary recipient of the population

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NZ Government to join immigration crackdown

By Leith van Onselen The backlash against mass immigration is spreading as the politics boils over, with New Zealand’s National Government set to announce curbs to the country’s immigration program along similar lines to those announced by Australia’s Coalition Government. From Interest.co.nz: “Tweaks” to New Zealand immigration settings to be announced Wednesday will give the

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NZ Labour schools Australian Labor on population ponzi

By Leith van Onselen With the New Zealand general election scheduled for 23 September, the Labour opposition has taken aim at New Zealand’s mass immigration program, which Labour claims is choking housing, infrastructure and public services in Auckland, as well as undercutting working conditions. From Interest.co.nz: Labour’s immigration policy will focus foremost on whether the number

2

ANZ: Auckland housing bubble “more extreme than Melbourne and Sydney”

By Leith van Onselen From ANZ CEO, Shayne Elliott, comes the admission that Auckland’s housing bubble is even more extreme that Sydney’s and Melbourne’s. From Interest.co.nz: In terms of the Auckland housing market Elliott says the city is suffering from the same issues as Sydney and Melbourne. “There are some supply challenges, there are some

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Is the Auckland land bubble about to burst?

By Leith van Onselen New Zealand’s National Business Review (NBR) has posted an interesting article today on how New Zealand’s Australian-owned banks have halted lending for projects on development land, which risks sending developers to the wall and causing a “freefall in prices over the next two years”: Some of the country’s private finance companies

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As Auckland’s population booms, dwelling supply falls

By Leith van Onselen The New Zealand National Government’s single-minded focus on solving Auckland’s housing crisis by boosting supply continues to take a hammering. Today, Statistics New Zealand released figures showing that construction momentum has slowed, with trend number of new homes consented decreasing 11% in the six months to January 2017: According to the

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Productivity Commission slams Auckland’s failed housing system

By Leith van Onselen New Zealand’s Productivity Commission (PC) has released a new report entitled “Urban planning – moving beyond the wheel spin”, which examines the current urban planning system in New Zealand and provides recommendations for a better-performing system. Unfortunately, I am not able to download the full PDF report, so instead I have

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Add a third huge bubble city to your Aussie bank risk list

By Leith van Onselen CoreLogic has released its latest New Zealand Property Market & Economic Update, which paints a disturbing picture of Auckland’s housing market. First, population growth into Auckland has been extreme – driven by immigration – with the city’s population growing by 44,500 over the past year, accounting for nearly half of New

5

Population ponzi sinks New Zealand government

By Leith van Onselen With the general election scheduled for 23 September, things are starting to look bad for the recently promoted Prime Minister of New Zealand, Bill English, delivering a stark warning to Aussie politicians. Yesterday, Stuff.co.nz reported that the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll has placed Bill English on 25% in the preferred prime

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Australia’s kiwi exodus continues to moderate

By Leith van Onselen Statistics New Zealand has released its permanent & long-term migration figures for February 2017, which revealed that annual net permanent and long-term migration into New Zealand hit another all-time high 71,333 people: According to Statistics New Zealand, “about a third of all migrant arrivals for the year were people coming to New Zealand

5

NZ Labour shows way on housing policy

By Leith van Onselen New Zealand’s shadow minister for housing, Labor’s Phil Twyford, continues to apply deep pressure to the National Government over housing affordability. Last year, Twyford called for the elimination of Auckland’s Rural Urban Boundary (RUB), as well as freeing-up density restrictions and creating a new mechanism for financing infrastructure – infrastructure bonds

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NZ’s housing affordability troubles are all about Auckland

By Leith van Onselen Interest.co.nz’s David Chaston has produced some interesting charts comparing mortgage repayments to take home pay across New Zealand’s major markets over the past decade. At the national level, Chaston finds that mortgage affordability is actually better now than just prior to the GFC, courtesy of falling mortgage rates and the steady

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Amid record immigration, NZ dwelling supply to slow

By Leith van Onselen The New Zealand National Government’s single-minded focus on solving Auckland’s housing crisis by boosting supply continues to take a hammering. Last week, Statistics New Zealand released figures showing that construction momentum has slowed, with the trend number of new homes consented decreasing 15% in the five months to January 2017: “Most