By Leith van Onselen I wrote yesterday how anti-immigration party, New Zealand First, is likely to win the balance of power in the upcoming 23 September General Election, meaning it will likely decide which major parties form government. Well, the man that also wants to be ‘kingmaker’ – former economist and philanthropist, Gareth Morgan, from
By Leith van Onselen Several strings of data suggests that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions targeting investors, which were announced in July 2016, are beginning to have the desired effect of cooling Auckland’s runaway housing market. As noted yesterday, the share of mortgages going to investors has cooled significantly
By Leith van Onselen I noted last week how anti-immigration party, New Zealand First, has increased its voter support from 3% to 10.5%, according to the latest Roy Morgan polling, meaning that it could hold the balance of power and decide who forms the next government. Well, this morning New Zealand First’s leader, Winston Peters,
By Leith van Onselen Statistics New Zealand has this morning released its labour force data for the March quarter, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.9% from 5.2%. The key changes are outlined in the below table: As shown above, employment rose 1.2% in the March quarter to be up 5.7% over the year, whereas
By Leith van Onselen Hardly a day goes by now that concerns about New Zealand’s record immigration program are vented in the media, which is posing big problems for the incumbent National Government as the nation heads to the polls on 23 September. Last week, Bloomberg nicely summarised the debate: An unprecedented influx of immigrants
By Leith van Onselen Data released yesterday by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) revealed that property investor lending has cooled materially since the RBNZ implemented new loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions targeting investors, which officially came into effect on 1 October, although banks began informally applying the rules since they were first announced in
By Leith van Onselen The New Zealand National Government’s single-minded focus on solving Auckland’s housing crisis by boosting supply continues to take a hammering. Today, Statistics New Zealand released figures showing that construction momentum has slowed across Auckland, with just 942 dwelling consents issued in March and 10,199 issued over the year: As noted by
By Leith van Onselen Who forms government in New Zealand following the 23 September General Election could be decided by anti-immigration party, New Zealand First, according to the latest polling by Roy Morgan Research: In April support for New Zealand First was up 3% to 10.5% putting Winston Peters’ party now clearly in the box
By Leith van Onselen Statistics New Zealand has released its permanent & long-term migration figures for March 2017, which revealed that annual net permanent and long-term migration into New Zealand hit another all-time high 71,932 people: According to Statistics New Zealand, migrant arrivals numbered 129,500 in the March 2017 year, versus departures of 57,600. Visa
By Leith van Onselen The New Zealand National Government’s single-minded focus on solving the nation’s housing crisis by boosting dwelling supply continues to fail. In 2016, New Zealand added a whopping 100,000 residents, more than 70% of which came from net migration: The bubble hotspot of Auckland has been the primary recipient of the population
By Leith van Onselen The backlash against mass immigration is spreading as the politics boils over, with New Zealand’s National Government set to announce curbs to the country’s immigration program along similar lines to those announced by Australia’s Coalition Government. From Interest.co.nz: “Tweaks” to New Zealand immigration settings to be announced Wednesday will give the
By Leith van Onselen With the New Zealand general election scheduled for 23 September, the Labour opposition has taken aim at New Zealand’s mass immigration program, which Labour claims is choking housing, infrastructure and public services in Auckland, as well as undercutting working conditions. From Interest.co.nz: Labour’s immigration policy will focus foremost on whether the number
By Leith van Onselen From ANZ CEO, Shayne Elliott, comes the admission that Auckland’s housing bubble is even more extreme that Sydney’s and Melbourne’s. From Interest.co.nz: In terms of the Auckland housing market Elliott says the city is suffering from the same issues as Sydney and Melbourne. “There are some supply challenges, there are some
By Leith van Onselen The RBNZ released its monthly credit data, which showed New Zealand household borrowing continuing to retrace from December’s cyclical high, recording annual growth of 8.5% in February: Most of New Zealand’s household debt is driven by mortgages, which has also retraced to 8.8% in the year to February 2017, down from
By Leith van Onselen New Zealand’s National Business Review (NBR) has posted an interesting article today on how New Zealand’s Australian-owned banks have halted lending for projects on development land, which risks sending developers to the wall and causing a “freefall in prices over the next two years”: Some of the country’s private finance companies
By Leith van Onselen The New Zealand National Government’s single-minded focus on solving Auckland’s housing crisis by boosting supply continues to take a hammering. Today, Statistics New Zealand released figures showing that construction momentum has slowed, with trend number of new homes consented decreasing 11% in the six months to January 2017: According to the
By Leith van Onselen New Zealand’s Productivity Commission (PC) has released a new report entitled “Urban planning – moving beyond the wheel spin”, which examines the current urban planning system in New Zealand and provides recommendations for a better-performing system. Unfortunately, I am not able to download the full PDF report, so instead I have
By Leith van Onselen CoreLogic has released its latest New Zealand Property Market & Economic Update, which paints a disturbing picture of Auckland’s housing market. First, population growth into Auckland has been extreme – driven by immigration – with the city’s population growing by 44,500 over the past year, accounting for nearly half of New
By Leith van Onselen As widely expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has held the official cash rate (OCR) at 1.75%. The release accompanying the decision was basically a carbon copy of the February statement, with RBNZ governor Graeme Wheeler noting that the OCR is likely to remain on hold for an extended
By Leith van Onselen With the general election scheduled for 23 September, things are starting to look bad for the recently promoted Prime Minister of New Zealand, Bill English, delivering a stark warning to Aussie politicians. Yesterday, Stuff.co.nz reported that the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll has placed Bill English on 25% in the preferred prime
By Leith van Onselen Statistics New Zealand has released its permanent & long-term migration figures for February 2017, which revealed that annual net permanent and long-term migration into New Zealand hit another all-time high 71,333 people: According to Statistics New Zealand, “about a third of all migrant arrivals for the year were people coming to New Zealand
By Leith van Onselen New Zealand’s shadow minister for housing, Labor’s Phil Twyford, continues to apply deep pressure to the National Government over housing affordability. Last year, Twyford called for the elimination of Auckland’s Rural Urban Boundary (RUB), as well as freeing-up density restrictions and creating a new mechanism for financing infrastructure – infrastructure bonds
By Leith van Onselen Statistics New Zealand has today released national accounts figures for the December quarter of 2016, with Gross domestic product (GDP) rising by 0.4% over the quarter to be up 3.1% year-on-year. However, GDP per capita fell by 0.2% in the December quarter to be up 0.9% year-on-year. Services drove the growth
By Leith van Onselen Interest.co.nz’s David Chaston has produced some interesting charts comparing mortgage repayments to take home pay across New Zealand’s major markets over the past decade. At the national level, Chaston finds that mortgage affordability is actually better now than just prior to the GFC, courtesy of falling mortgage rates and the steady
By Leith van Onselen The New Zealand National Government’s single-minded focus on solving Auckland’s housing crisis by boosting supply continues to take a hammering. Last week, Statistics New Zealand released figures showing that construction momentum has slowed, with the trend number of new homes consented decreasing 15% in the five months to January 2017: “Most
