Iron ore price

On the great bear market rolls.

From UBS comes estimates of pain: Diversifieds: All else equal, our BHP & RIO earnings estimates for CY 16 would be 60% and 29% lower, respectively, under a spot scenario.

From Macquarie Bank’s monthly Chinese steel mill survey: Sentiment remained extremely weak in the steel industry in the first half of November, according to the latest result of our proprietary survey.

Here are the iron ore charts for November 17, 2015: The Tianjin benchmark iron ore price fell 3.2% yesterday to $45.80.

Trevor Sykes is back with more bad analysis today, this time on BHP: For a normal industrial company or bank that would be questionable policy.

BHP has managed a weak bounce today up 0.5%, RIO is up 1% and FMG flat: Dalian is unchanged and we’ll see iron ore take another sharp fall tomorrow if it stays that way.

Here are the iron ore charts for November 16, 2015: New lows for spot with Tianjin benchmark down 0.2% to $47.30, paper and rebar average also hit new lows.

Here are the iron ore charts for November 15, 2015: Qingdao spot was up but Tianjin benchmark fell 40 cents to $47.40.

A little reality is creeping into the local idiot market today with BHP and RIO slammed -2.5% and FMG hit -5%: Dalian is up three points during the day so the damage would be much worse without Samarco.

From The Australian: Mining giants BHP Billiton and Vale will be held accountable for a deadly dam rupture at an iron ore mine in Brazil and face immediate fines of about $US66 million, says President Dilma Rousseff.

With oil tanking last night and headed for $40, the mining GFC has returned with a vengeance as mining credit spreads surge, equity is crushed and, increasingly, the mess delivers nasty damage to wider equity as well.

Here are the iron ore price charts for November 12, 2015: Spot at new lows.

From Macquarie: Following the Samarco tragedy in Brazil, which has removed 30mtpa of iron ore (pellet) supply from the market, Vale released a statement saying that production at its own Fabrica Nova / Timbopeba operations in the Southeastern mining complex nearby may be negatively impacted, by 3mt in 2015 and 9mt in 2016.

Here are the iron ore price updates for November 11, 2015: Spot OK with Tianjin flat again at $47.70.

From Dumbfax: Meet the one analyst who’s brave enough to slap a sell recommendation on hallowed blue chip BHP Billiton.

From the AFR: BHP has said it is still too early to say what caused the tragedy and there has been speculation that there may have been some sort of seismic event.

From FMG this just now: Sensible enough.

From the BBC: Brazilian mining company Samarco has had its mining licence suspended after two dams it used to hold waste water from iron ore collapsed.

Big iron is hoping again today, this time for Samarco deliverance, instead of looking just beyond that to prices that are going to sink and sink.

From Macquarie: The tragic and catastrophic dam failures at Samarco’s Minas Gerais operation on Thursday are a reminder that no matter how bad market fundamentals may be, there are things which are much more important.

Here are the iron ore charts for November 9, 2015: Qingdao firmed and Tianjin benchmark more so up 0.6% to 47.70.