Global Macro

ANZ released a very good macro strategy note late yesterday arguing that the global slowdown has some ways to run and markets face stiff headwinds. I recommend a read. Here’ the conclusion: Our lead indicators suggest that the weakness in the manufacturing PMIs (and thus overall growth) will extend through to at least Q3 2012.

In May this chronicle was devoted to the parlous state of Indianexternal financing, while followed on from an April edition centred on the RBI.

The great boob is readying to burst from its scanty brassiere, according to Reuters: Central banks from major economies stand ready to take steps to stabilize financial markets by providing liquidity and preventing a credit squeeze if the outcome of Greek elections on Sunday causes tumultuous trading, G20 officials told Reuters.

Courtesy of Also Spracht Analyst.

Please find below former Reserve Bank of New Zealand advisor and multiple CEO, Terry “Macca” McFadgen’s, latest ‘Maccanomics’ article, which tackles the looming Spanish disaster and what might be in stall for the European Union.

The PMI’s are in and it’s more subdued news with across the board slumps in the growth rates of North Asia’s manufacturing powerhouses.

Two months ago this chronicle was devoted to the Budget, while the April edition centred on the RBI.

By Leith van Onselen It’s starting to turn pear-shaped for the United Kingdom (UK) economy.

It’s that time of the month again – PMI time!

A month ago this chronicle was devoted always exclusively to the Union Budget.

Today’s chart comes via History Squared, and shows the pace of inflation in the last monetary crisis, when the US moved from a declining gold bullion system to a fiat, or modern monetary system.

The animal spirits of the US equity market are on display again.

Cross posted with permission from Mark the Graph: I have been enjoying Richard C Koo’s, The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan’s Great Recession, published in 2008 by John Wiley and Sons.

The PMIs are out and here’s the wrap.

Ratings agency Fitch just released its latest quarterly Global Economic Outlook (GEO), where it is forecasting weak economic growth for the major advanced economies at 1.1% for 2012, with a “modest acceleration” to 1.8% for 2013.

Actually 4 charts today, all from the RBA’s Financial Stability Review, the household side covered by Delusional Economics this morning.

Here is the speech Chairman Ben Bernanke of the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) gave at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Conference, last night that moved risk markets around the world.

Gerard Minack of Morgan Stanley today asks a good question: Why So Cautious?

By Leith van Onselen On Monday, I published a post entitled “Dangerous Exponentials”, which summarised recent research by Dr Tim Morgan, Global Head of Research for Tullett Prebon.

Time for another update from that other driver of Futureboom!

“Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist”.

So, as I suspected would happen, the push-back against the suicide pact continues.