Global Macro

This week saw the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) go against the predictions of most economists and the financial market by lifting the official cash rate (OCR) another 0.25% to 3.85%.

Maersk was very bearish overnight.

This is an interesting take by Capital Economics.

I thought Roubini’s Megathreats was hysterical waffle.

And it is going to get worse before it gets worse with US and European slowdowns ahead.

Pantheon with the note.

The market is hunting banks: ELIZA RONALDS-HANNON: We’re seeing widening CDS spreads in banks other than Credit Suisse, with the cost of Deutsche Bank and Barclays swaps hitting new highs.

Barclays has some interesting analysis that is more reassuring than it should be perhaps because it is coming from Barclays.

I have never understood the obsession with going to university, nor the efficacy of having ~40% of Australians aged between 25 and 44 years obtain a bachelor degree or higher.

Pantheon with the note.

Courtesy of ZH.

Last night we saw two US regional banks get experience runs of one sort or another.

Egged on by past gloomy successes, a new breed of superdoomster is abroad to ruin your day (if not life).

No sign here of any China boom yet.

UBS with the note. Supply chain bottleneck stress close to lowest level in 10 years Our composite global supply chain stress indicator has fallen to -0.66 st dev below normal (median).

Pantheon with the note.

More recession signals from the North Asian trade canaries via Pantheon.

In a phrase, bank lending standards.

Some charts from Goldman.

The never-bearish Goldman is cock-a-whoop: We have cut our subjective probability that the US economy will enter a recession in the next 12 months from 35% to 25%, less than half the 65% consensus estimate in the latest Wall Street Journal survey.

Pantheon with a note I agree with.