Australian Shares

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Robots bid stocks back from cliff

The Nomura robot whisperers on the persistence of equity refuse to capitulate as macro conditions deteriorate. For me, this is not very different from any bear market. Things get overstretched and snap back then sink again. Rinse and repeat. — Macro Vol—particularly in FX—on CB policy diverges vs hawkish Fed (dovish BoJ, PBoC), “behind the

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Macro Morning

Overnight stock markets rallied strongly overnight on the poor US GDP number, although bond markets looked straight through that print with 10 year US Treasury yields pushing back up to the 2.9% level as Wall Street rallied on lower expectations of Fed tightness around the corner. The USD remains on a tear against everything, helped

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Macro Afternoon

A much better session across Asian share markets today with the bounceback on Chinese stocks extending to other bourses as Wall Street tried to stabilise overnight. The USD is getting super strong against all the majors with Euro taking a deep dive alongside the Australian dollar and Yen. Oil markets are slipping again in the

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US earnings sicken on margin crush

JPM with the note. Headline numbers are decent so far but the inflationary margin crush is not pleasing markets. — Based on 21% of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far, 73% are beating 1Q earnings and 64% are beating revenue estimates.  Earnings have surprised to the upside by 4.7% (vs. 16.5% on

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Macro Morning

Overnight stock markets stabilised somewhat with a late rally in tech stocks (aka Meta) helping calm fears of growing poor earnings on Wall Street in the wake of an aggressive Fed rate rise regime. The USD is still growing stronger, now at a five year high with defensive Yen reversing as Euro and the Australian

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Macro Afternoon

A late bounceback on Chinese stocks didn’t spread to other markets in the region today, as traders reacted to the overnight whomping on Wall Street. The USD remains firm against all the majors although the Australian dollar was able to bounce back a tiny bit this afternoon following the unclear inflation print. Oil markets are

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Macro Morning

There’s dead cats all over the place as overnight stock markets couldn’t help but turnover and selloff as global recession fears mount combined with some poor earnings on Wall Street. Combined with near crashes in Chinese stocks as COVID restrictions continue to bite and may well impact global supply, its all looking a bit dark

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Macro Afternoon

A very mixed reaction to the volatility on overnight markets here in Asia with Australian stocks playing catchup with the biggest falls as Chinese markets continue to selloff under global recession and local COVID concerns. The USD remains firm against all the majors although the Australian dollar was able to bounce back a little this

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Wall Street bears lick their chops

The few smartest gentlemen in the room worthy of the title are back today with grisly new warnings. BofA is still the grizzly: The Metacurse: world of extreme inflation,rates shock just beginning(“75bpsisthenew 25bps”), secular flip from QE-winners to QT-winners (see natural resources vs biotech–Chart3) well-underway as era of higher global rates begins(Chart4);“rates shock”=techtrauma…social media stocks

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Macro Morning

Stock markets had very high volatility overnight as global recession fears mount, but a late rally saw Wall Street eventually finish to the upside. This follows the crash in Chinese stocks yesterday as authorities ramp up their COVID restrictions while the PBOC tries to shore up confidence with more reserve ratio cuts. Bond markets remains

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Macro Morning

Wall Street fell sharply overnight on some very hawkish comments from Fed officials and while European markets remained upbeat. This saw the one day reversal in USD flip back to the dominant trend again with the 10 year US Treasury yield jumping back through the 2.9% level as expectations of a 50bps rise by the

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Macro Afternoon

Its another diversion in risk taking today with Asian stock markets going bullish and bearish in nearly equal fashion. Mainland and offshore Chinese markets are selling off sharply once again, while Japanese bourses are lifting as Yen remains weak against USD. The Australian dollar has paused its bounce back, running out of puff above the

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Macro Morning

Wall Street stumbled overnight on some poor earnings results while European markets were more upbeat as the USD finally lost ground against some of the major currency pairs. All eyes remain on interest rate markets however, with the 10 year US Treasury yield falling back slightly to the 2.8% level with the Fed expected to

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets continued in mixed fashion with mainland Chinese markets remaining under pressure with risk sentiment only positive in Japanese shares as Yen continues to sell off against USD. The Australian dollar has bounced back with a look-see above the 74 cent level versus USD, while oil markets are trying to stabilise after the

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Macro Morning

A bifurcation in risk taking overnight as Wall Street rallied while European markets were more sanguine, with the new reporting season helping stateside. All eyes remain on the Fed, with the 10 year US Treasury yield making another new nearly four year high above the 2.9% level. The USD rose again with Yen dominating as

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are having a mixed restart after the Easter break with mainland and offshore Chinese markets remaining under pressure with risk sentiment also souring as European markets open. The Australian dollar has bounced back after its week’s long selloff, almost lifting back above the 74 cent level versus USD, while the USDJPY pair

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What will trigger the stock crash?

Other than faltering macro, the other big one is earnings. In particular, the forward estimates of coked-up kids on Wall Street. Morgan Stanley has more. — We make the case that earnings revisions will decelerate amid 1Q reporting season as the MS Business Conditions Index (a survey of our industry analysts) just fell further and

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Coming global recession or depression?

Goldman is still all happy-clappy: While inflation reached its fastest yearly pace in March since the early 1980s, we believe headline and core CPI should gradually subside throughout most of the rest of the year, and reach 5.7% and 4.5%, respectively, by YE22. That said, we believe that easing current strong wage growth and tightness

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Macro Morning

A quite night of thin trading overnight as Western markets exit the Easter break with Wall Street pulling back slightly although European shares were more bullish. All eyes remain on the Fed, with the 10 year US Treasury yield making a new nearly four year high above the 2.8% level. The USD rose again to

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are bouncing back although mainland Chinese markets remain under pressure with risk sentiment rebounding on European markets. The Australian dollar has continued to selloff, still holding barely at the 74 cent level versus USD, while the USDJPY pair makes a two decade high. Oil markets are trying to stabilise with both markers

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Macro Morning

A big night of economic data mixed up with bigger macro news with the breakdown in Russian/Ukrainian peace talks and Finland moving closer to joining NATO. The latest core US inflation print surprised on the downside, sending bond yields lower, with the 10 year US Treasury pulling back to 2.67% and the closely watched German

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Macro Afternoon

Another poor session for Asian stock markets with concerns over Chinese growth and the ongoing COVID lockdowns combined with increased tensions in Europe while the Fed seems hell bent on raising rates sharply. The Australian dollar has continued to selloff, still holding barely at the 74 cent level versus USD, while Yen is still extremely

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Stocks still in firing line as cycle overheats

Morgan Stanely with more useful warnings for stocks: For investors, 2022 should be called The Year of theFed with every meetingand communication more hawkish than the last. It’s almost comical how fast the markets’ expectations have changed in the past 4 months. After all, it’s not like inflation was dormant in 4Q21 (Exhibit 1). It’s