The Aussie dollar is stable today: Bonds are a little bid: As XJO powers to an 11 year high. Monthly chart below: Now trading on 16.5x, plenty of room to blow more bubble as earnings don’t grow but the multiple does: Dalian is nuts: Big Iron up: Big Gas is up with oil: Big Gold
By Chris Becker The risk market complex started the week in fine form as backstops from the world’s central banks continue to inflate stocks in particular. Wall Street glided along on the Fed put and better relations with Mexico due to the tariff cancellations, with the USD firming slightly against the other major currencies. The
Asian share markets are starting the week with a fresh bounce in the wake of Wall Street’s rally post-NFP print, with the Federal Reserve likely to support risk assets one more time. The Yuan is weakening again as Chinese authorities manipulate the currency as the trade war goes on, with the USDCNH offshore pair moving closer
By Chris Becker The May US non farm payroll was one of the weakest job prints since the GFC, which of course meant that Wall Street rallied as this structural problem will result in lower rates by the Fed. The USD fell to a two month low against almost everything, with Euro breaking out of
Asian share markets are set to finish the week on a better mood with small rises across the region. There has been some movement in offshore Yuan trading today despite the Middle Kingdom having a trading holiday with the PBOC governor indicating lots more room to move on any further deterioration in the trade war with
By Chris Becker Risk sentiment overnight was somewhat mixed but still positive as US stocks advanced alongside interest rates while oversold oil bounced back 2% as the USD finished lower. This is on the back of potential delays in the US-Mexico tariff deadline while in Europe, the ECB extended its hold status, but nevertheless remains
Asian share markets are again mixed despite a positive mood on Wall Street overnight with only local stocks on the ASX200 lifting today. Concern over the US/Mexico trade spat and more Federal Reserve cuts is keeping currency markets on their toes with tonight’s ECB meeting the key focus on the calendar. The Shanghai Composite is
By Chris Becker A slump in hiring conditions in the US saw stocks improve and a possible retraction of tariffs against Mexico lifted USD against all the majors overnight. Oil prices slumped nearly 3% as long positions continued to be abandoned in the wake of decade high petrol stockpiles in the US. Yesterday saw Asian stock markets
In response to the surge on Wall Street overnight, Asian share markets have the main echoed the returns with mainland Chinese stocks the only fly in the ointment. The local GDP print saw Aussie stocks taper off throughout the session, while the Australian dollar remains stubbornly below the 70 handle. The Shanghai Composite remains unable
By Chris Becker Wall Street rebounded fiercely overnight on the back of the Powell Put with lower rates definitely on the agenda for the Fed in 2019. EZ inflation pulled back in May while commodity prices remained under pressure despite a much lower USD. It should be a solid risk on day here in Asia
While all local eyes were on the RBA, which made its first move in interest rates in three years, the region was focused on macro issues particularly trade with all the action in bond markets as traders remain jittery. The USD is still weak after the recent reversal with the Yuan fix remaining steady, the
Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: We have just published our latest thoughts on global style rotation and its implications for Australian stocks. The US yield curve has meaningfully inverted. 80% of the time, this foreshadows a recession around the corner. Mechanically, it means that investors are starting to price in rate cuts. Our US
By Chris Becker Wall Street was all over the place last night after European markets improved following a dour start to the week here in Asia. Tech stocks dragged the NASDAQ down significantly as regulatory issues surrounded the sector, while most industrials slipped on ongoing trade concerns as Tariff Trump had tea with the Queen.
Following the ugly finish to last week on risk markets around the world, a new month and season hasn’t seen any fresh starts here in Asia as shares extend their slide across the region. Risks are mounting in every direction, with trade concerns doubling down on Trump’s Mexican tariffs and ongoing Brexit saga while slowing economic
An ugly finish to the week here in Asia as share markets tumble in the wake of Trump’s Mexican tariffs and the growing discord in North Korea and the Chinese trade talks. It’s all about safe haven buying including Yen, gold, Bitcoin and Bunds. The Shanghai Composite has closed below the critical 2900 point level in the
It’s all on the broad shoulders of Scummo now. The AUD is holding 0.69 this morning, just, despite Australia’s world coming apart at the seams: XJO is also holding up well on the ‘Scummo will save us’ bid as S&P futures get hammered: Bonds are telling a very different tale: Dalian is soft: Big Iron
By Chris Becker Stock markets were a little calmer overnight as the US GDP print came in strong as expected, although revised a little lower. The big mover was DOE oil inventories which were much larger than expected, sending crude prices at least 4% lower. The USD remained firm against the majors as the Australian
Asian share markets remain on the backfoot can continue to follow the risk-off mood with falls across the region as the USD remains strong against all the majors, except the Australian dollar which has remained resilient despite a slew of bad economic prints today. The Shanghai Composite has closed 0.3% lower but is still clinging
By Chris Becker Risk sentiment is now in a very poor place with further falls on both sides of the Atlantic overnight, the S&P500 critically falling below the key 2800 point support level as European stocks reacted negatively to the uptick in German unemployment. The USD was stronger against most of the majors, although the
Asian share markets are on the backfoot following the dour return of Wall Street overnight with falls across the region as the USD regains against all the majors, with safe haven buying in Yen the biggest move as the Australian dollar teeters on edge. The Shanghai Composite is the only standout, up slightly to 2914 points,
The Australian dollar is still well bid in the low .69s this morning: Even as bond yields crater: XJO is cruising for bruising at 16.2 x forward earnings, discounting only iron ore and housing booms ahead: As it chases yield uber alles: Dalian volatility keeps rising: Big iron is off: Big Gas more so: Big
By Chris Becker Traders in the US didn’t like the long weekend break despite a lift in local consumer confidence with tensions over the ongoing trade dispute with China causing much angst. The USD was all over the place, firmest against European currencies while the Aussie dollar tread water, but commodities like gold, oil and copper
Asian share markets are gaining in confidence despite the lack of a lead from a closed Wall Street overnight with the USD slipping against all the majors, as the PBOC let the Yuan weaken again today. With Wall Street and The City reopening tonight there should be extra volatility and opportunity available! The Shanghai Composite
The Australian dollar is a little bid through the morning as iron ore flushes cash into everything Aussie: XJO too: Bonds not so much, with curve steepening still elusive: Dalian is flat after another overnight party: But Big Iron is up and away. Can RIO run to a pre-GFC record high above $120? Big Gas
By Chris Becker With the long weekend at hand in the US and UK markets closed as well, the focus was on the European continent as markets reacted to the EU parliamentary elections. While the Brexit Party got a big hold, the populists and nationalists didn’t fare as feared, helping lift sentiment. Yesterday saw Asian stock
Asian share markets have started the week in a generally upbeat mood, save for the ASX200 which finished with a scratch session due to a bounceback in the Australian dollar. The Trump-ABe meeting hasn’t produced any gaffes while the latest Chinese industrial profits result was a lot lower than expected, it had almost no impact
Via Macquarie equities: “multiple catalysts [have] improved the domestic growth outlook”. “With positive housing catalysts in the last week, we are more confident housing will improve in 2019.” “Based on an average of 6 months, we could see month-on-month house price rises as early as July 2019.” “This should flow through to better growth in
Authored by Michael Zezas, Chief Public Policy strategist at Morgan Stanley: Investors are obsessed, trying to figure out what happens next in the US/China trade dispute. Will the US call China? What do the negotiators really think? Does this last three weeks or three months? Our answer: you could be starting with the wrong questions. First, let’s look
Via Zero Hedge: Unfortunately for Horseman investors, in April the fund suffered a 12.23% drop as the market melted up just ahead of Trump’s renewed trade and tech war on Beijing and Huawei. The drop was the second worst month in the hedge fund’s history after it lost 12.73% in September 2011, when the market
By Chris Becker With the long weekend at hand in the US, risk markets on Friday night finished the week in a slightly upbeat mood, more in relief than in actual rebirth of the former risk rally. Concerns over the US trade war with China, the potential shooting war with Iran, the chaos in the
