Stocks are up across the region, except locally where traders forgot to fill their buy orders later in the afternoon as the RBA held back on its last rate cut, giving no forecasts for what’s coming down the “V” for vacuous recovery. The rest of the risk complex is still dancing gaily across a sea
From Macquarie: “Given the strong free cash flow yields on our forecasts and at spot prices, we believe the iron ore miners should continue to pay healthy dividends.” “The 12-month forward yield is 3 per cent for S32, 7 per cent for BHP, 8 per cent for Rio and 14 per cent for Fortescue. These
The excellent Adrian Blundell-Wignall addressing MB, I think, at the AFR: I have been surprised at just how negative some economists are about COVID-19. Not so much about the near term, where there is general agreement on the severity of the initial rise in unemployment, but rather about what happens on the “other side”. No
By Chris Becker The inability of markets to understand mathematics – i.e the exponential function – continued overnight with a gorging of buying in stocks, culminating in 7% plus sessions on Wall Street even as the number of dead Americans pile up across the continent. European bourses surged too, even as Boris Johnson handed over
Everything is awesome as markets rally in ecstasy in response to the record breaking US unemployment figures from Friday, and the slowdown in the rate of growth of COVID-19 cases outside the US. In other words, this is probably the eye of the storm before the Trumpvirus goes South, literally. Speculation of a deal between
Magellan has reported its FUM flows for March: From a peak at the end of January, FUM is down roughly 11% (extracted from flows). Magellan has various funds with a very wide variety of performance. The 11% may not be a bad representation of the firm’s aggregate performance for what that’s worth. It has still
Like he did in the European crisis when he told everyone to sell right at the bottom? Let’s see: …the market PE has come down to 13.3, then earnings are forecast to be unchanged next year. Alternatively, we could say PE is still 18.8 which means the “E” for earnings is expected to fall by
First, it was Morgan Stanley on the economy: Disruptions to economic activity have become increasingly pervasive as social distancing measures and closures of nonessential businesses have spread across the country. This will lead to a sharp drop off in activity in 2Q that is reflected in the now 38% annualized decline in GDP that we expect
The Australian dollar had added a few pips this morning: Bonds are a little soft: Stocks to the moon as Trump moves from vague guff about oil to vague guff about more stimulus cheques: Big Iron is convinced that global depression can’t hurt it. Mad: Big Oil is struggling to believe in Trump’s guff: Big
By Chris Becker Friday night saw the release of the latest US unemployment figures following two weeks of epically bad initial jobless claims, with over 700,000 jobs officially lost although its expected to be much higher given the exponential rate of decline in the “land of the free”. Free from intelligence too as its become
Another down day for Asian stock markets as local markets erase the one-off blip on Wall Street overnight as oil prices come back slightly and USD strengthens against Yen and gold. Japanese and Chinese PMIs came in poor as expected with the PBOC weakening the Yuan significantly against USD to over the 7.11 handle. The
Via Saxo: Summary: With all the major central banks expected to be effectively zero bound in 2020, the scope for returns in bonds will be low for years to come. Equities have hit multiple speedbumps since 2008. But every time, they came back to new all-time highs fuelled by endless policy action, mostly from central banks.
The AUD is up as usual in Asian trade: Bonds are pulling back on oil: XJO is up: Tracking Big Iron which still looks like a sitting duck: Big Gas is running with El Trumpo’s oil rumourtage. His mates no doubt front ran the supply cut drivel: Big Gold is yawning again: Big Banks are
By Chris Becker Last night saw the return of risk despite another record blowout in unemployment claims in the US, where daily deaths from COVID-19 are now well over 1000. Its was all about a supposed phone call to oil producers Russia and Saudi from Trump that is supposed to result in production cuts, the
Another down day for Asian stock markets as local markets finally catch-up to the runoff in risk around the region, as USD strengthens a little across the majors, including gold which slipped further. Brent crude is rallying, but other commodities remain on the ropes. The Shanghai Composite is the only market to put on any
The Australian dollar is up few pips this morning: Bonds are strong: XJO has gapped much of yesterday’s inexplicable surge: Big Iron is down. This is my bet for the next sector to be slaughtered: Big Gas is hoping that Trump can lift oil. Good luck with that: Big Disappointment rolls on: Big Banks are
By Chris Becker As the TrumpVirus becomes exponential, stocks were again the hardest hit overnight as risk shifted away from commodity currencies as well, with already record low bond yields dropped further in the wake of the crisis. European leaders have pushed out the lockdown periods, with China also announcing new regional lockdowns. But its
Another volatile day for Asian stock markets with a clear divergence between external hesistion and internal delusion as the ASX200 continues to be bid higher. Meanwhile the release of the emergency RBA minutes plus some shocking regional PMI data didn’t upset currency markets much, while a touted phone call between Putin and his pal Trump
Via The Australian: Veteran fund manager Geoff Wilson has warned that “everything is on the table” when the government looks for ways to pay for its massive spending spree to support the economy in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic. But he cautioned against a second attempted raid on franking credits to pay off the
The Australian dollar is still soft this morning: Bonds are bid out the wazoo: Sometimes the Australian stupidity premium can make a few dollars. XJO today is an example. After yesterday’s end of quarter sell down has the crack-juiced trader-children back in the saddle: In truth, XJO is down 28% versus SPX at down 23%
By Chris Becker So the first quarter of 2020 is over – doesn’t it feel like a year already? Stocks did their usual reshuffle overnight as end-month/end-quarter rebalancing saw more bond purchases, pushing Treasury yields down to more record lows, while currency markets were again relatively stable with some commodity proxies sliding back a little
A volatile day for local stocks while other Asian bourses were very unsteady following the broad gains on Wall Street overnight. We’re still in bear market territory, so oscillations of this kind are not to be unexpected. USD firmed against Yen but both Kiwi and Aussie remain resilient while gold slipped a little in late
Via Goldman: “After a swift 18% rally [last week], the most common investor question was ‘has a new bull market started ?’” Goldman analysts, led by David Kostin, wrote. “Strategically, we continue to expect the S&P 500 SPX, +3.35% will rise to 3,000 by year’s end,” they added. “Tactically, however, we believe it is likely that the market
The Australian dollar is soft: Bonds are still firm if off a little: Stocks to the moon! The mix is amusing. Big Dirt is not up much: But Big Ponzi is through the roof: Hoocoocoodanode that seven million Australians on welfare could lead to a stock market boom?
Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: The Australian government has pledged an additional $130 billion over the next 6 months in wage subsidies. Eligible firms will be paid $1500 per fortnight to subsidize workers stood down in the wake of COVID-19 shutdowns. The stimulus comes on top of the second $66 billion stimulus
By Chris Becker Overnight risk markets took the stimulus ball and ran with it, ignoring the growing COVID-19 virus caseload and deaths, particularly in the heart of the global economic machine, the USA. Quarter and month end rebalancing may also be playing a part, but it seems like another short covering bounce as the economic
Outside local stocks its been another rough start to the trading week throughout Asia for risk markets, but US futures are pushing higher as the risk complex again reweights the growing pile of virus victims versus the verisimilitude of a v-shaped recovery! USD is holding its ground against the major currency pairs, although gold has
Evans Dixon warns: Another one bites the dust: “significant reduction in the market value of funds under advice” Give Switzer a call.
The Aussie dollar is still firm this morning after a brief hiccup: The bond bid is back bigly: XJO is trying hard not to fall: Big Iron is mostly off Big Gas should be at new lows because oil is: Big Gold yawn: Big Banks are trying: Big Realty too: Because you can’t talk down
By Chris Becker It’s crunch time for stock markets around the world this week as its plain to see that the combined efforts of central banks and fiscal stimulus has had almost no impact on the reality that is a major recession forthcoming in 2020. As the US leads the world in its criminally negligent
