Commodities

From Citi,  The latest EIA PSM data show continued strong US demand growth through 1Q’15 and a y/y rise in net oil imports in March for the first time in 50 months(see figure 1).

From the AFR: The IEA calculates said that assuming a 14.5 per cent slope of LNG sales prices to crude oil in long-term contracts, a drop in the crude oil price from $US100 a barrel to $US50 would reduce the Australian projects’ revenues by $US20 billion a year.

The Brent oil price fell sharply last night to $63.80 as I write on a combination of factors.

Here are the iron ore price charts for June 3, 2015: Qingdao iron ore managed a new high yesterday despite paper market pullbacks but momentum is easing.

From Dad’s Army comes Peter Costello: The former federal treasurer says he is not convinced there’s a case for an inquiry, calls for which follow accusations major miners are deliberately pushing down prices to force out smaller rivals.

Big iron is playing catch-up today with BHP up 1%, RIO up 2.5% and FMG up 2%.

Brent oil was up half a percent overnight at $63.30 as I write.

Here are the iron ore charts for June 2, 2015: Spot up firmly though less than Dalian suggested it should be.

BHP is down 2% and RIO 1.5% today for no apparent reason beyond weak leads in London.

From Citi: There is considerable international media reporting of the upcoming (5 June) vote by the Norwegian parliament on whether the approximately US$900bn sovereign wealth fund should exclude companies with more than 30% of their revenue from coal mining, and electricity generators with more than 30% of their generation from coal.

From the AFR: After failing to convince the Abbott government to run an inquiry into the iron ore market, Fortescue Metals Group is understood to be quietly agitating for Plan B  – an inquiry in the West Australian Parliament.

Here are the iron ore price charts for May 1, 2015: Spot has not updated owing to the Singapore market being closed.

The Brent oil price eased a little last night as we approach the OPEC meeting.

Expect more of this for two more years, from the AFR: Engineering group UGL plans to cut 200 jobs to slash costs and has warned of fresh write downs as new chief executive Ross Taylor tries to create a sustainable business model for the company.

From Ian Verrender at the ABC: After months of seemingly erratic behaviour, Rinehart’s neighbour, Andrew Forrest, finally has begun to unveil snippets of his end game strategy.

The Brent oil price took off 5% Friday night to end at $65.51 in a little short squeeze following renewed falls in the US rig count which was down ten to 875:   This looks like a great move to short.

Here are the iron ore charts for May 29, 2015   More wood to chop.

From The West Australian: WA’s mining boom is not over because China’s high demand for iron ore is still growing, the head of an Australian chamber of commerce in Shanghai says.

The iron ore war is low key today for the first time in some weeks but it persists a little below the radar.

Big iron is up today as the weak dollar and bond bid boosts shares.

Maybe I’m making too much of this but a meme has taken hold in today’s media that a Fortescue tie-up with Chinese interests is bad idea.

Here are the iron ore price charts for May 28, 2015: Spot rejected new highs.

From Goldies: Voluntary production cuts are appealing in theory… The role that low cost expansions in Australia and Brazil are playing in driving iron ore prices lower has come into focus among investors, corporates and even policy-makers.