Commodities

24

A gold riposte

Cross-posted from Bullion Baron. I haven’t seen so much talk about whether Gold is a bubble or since around 12 months ago when Gold peaked at a record high above US$1900. After writing my piece on Gold/Silver (and my expectation they will head into a bubble) nearly 3 weeks ago: Saddle up for bubble phase in

9

Daily iron ore price update

Little to go on yesterday with many markets still in holiday mode but the 12month swap rallied handsomely: The only other data point of significance was Port Hedland shipping volumes for September which showed a sharp drop: It’s looking a bit toppy but not enough to draw any conclusion. I wondering if the RBA has

56

Uranium to India?

From the AFR: Australia is poised to take a significant step towards exporting uranium to India in a landmark move that promises to open up millions of dollars of sales for companies such as Paladin, Toro and Energy Resources of Australia and double national production by 2020. When she visits India in a fortnight, Prime

32

Orewellian iron

Find yesterday’s steel complex prices above. There are a couple of interesting bits around on the iron ore price today. The first is from Alphaville on ye auld price floor: The cost curve theory is that the highest cost producers (who happen to also be in China) will drop out when iron ore prices fall below

60

Chinese steel production to fall

From the AFR: Chinese steel production will fall over the next three years, according to figures released at a major iron ore conference on Thursday. The Deputy Secretary-General of the Metallurgical Mines Association of China, Liu Xiaoliang, forecast that by 2015 China would demand only 705 million tonnes of crude steel. That is a fall

0

The bad news bulks

Courtesy of ANZ: Newcastle front month futures prices declined to USD87.2/t dragged lower by negative demand sentiment for energy related assets. Iron ore did not fare much better, falling 2.5% to USD103.7/t, while Australia FOB coking coal prices also declined by USD1.42 to UDS146.79. Slower steel demand growth in China and Europe has created a surplus in Asia, weighing on prices.

1

Daily iron ore update

Yesterday’s iron ore prices show continued consolidation: I’m not sure we’re going to see much more upside here in the near term. The decision by India yesterday to limit some iron ore exports seems to have little effect on the market. Such news used to send the price up 20% or more. Here are the

0

Daily iron ore price

Friday saw the ore price end the week on a soft note: Not much to add except to say that the 12 month swap looks reasonably priced at these levels given the outlook: Chinese steel prices took a breather: And there is still no real drawdown on Chinese port inventory:  

81

Will Japan do to us on gas what we did to it on ore?

There’s a unsettling story in The Australian today about a Japanese push to break the oil-benchmarked LNG contract pricing system: JAPAN’S drive to sever the oil link in the pricing system for liquefied natural gas could slow development of Australia’s gas industry, oil and gas company Santos has warned, saying the current pricing system was

1

Iron ore price volatility continues

Another wild day for the iron ore market with 12m swaps reversing spectacularly, spot showing less trouble and Chinese steel prices firming up.  So long as the rally in Chinese steel prices persists so too will the ore price. And on that front, the World Steel Association released its August figures today: Brussels, 20 September

2

Coking coal still falling

Courtesy of ANZ. Newcastle FOB October coal prices improved slightly to USD91.8/t. BHP Billiton boosted thermal coal production in its 2012 financial year, with record high output at two of its thermal coal mines in Australia and Colombia. BHP’s coking coal data was more bearish, with a large fall in earnings at its coking coal operations in 2012 due to

3

Coking coal dumped again

While we seem to have passed the short term nadir for iron ore prices, coking coal is still taking a battering. From ANZ: Newcastle FOB physical coal prices were steady around  USD91.1/t. Thermal coal markets appears to have based and  may find slightly better support as we enter the seasonally  strong winter demand period. We

18

Fortescue gets its rescue

From the AFR: Fortescue Metals Group has secured a commitment for a new debt facility of up to $US4.5 billion underwritten by Credit Suisse and JPMorgan that it will use to refinance its existing facilities and provide it with additional liquidity. …Fortescue said the earliest repayment date for any of its debt is now November