The Bureau of Meteorology has a history of the effects of cyclones on Port Hedland and it makes fascinating reading if aiming to judge possible fallout from Cyclone Rusty on the iron ore port (h/t Failed Baby Boomer). Storm surge, it seems, has razed the town in the past. Find it below. The Pilbara coast experiences
The BOM just issued the following warning: TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 30 Issued at 5:36 am WST on Wednesday 27 February 2013 A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Mardie including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier, and adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara, including Marble Bar, Nullagine, Millstream and Tom Price. A Cyclone WATCH
For February 26, 2013, iron ore spot was flat at $151.90 but 12 month swaps rose $2 to $122. Rebar futures also fell and have retraced the entire January rally: So still limited effects from Cyclone Rusty, which appears to be the slowest moving monster storm in the history of the world: ANZ is suggesting a
By Leith van Onselen Over the past few months I have warned that two of Australia’s major export commodities – thermal coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) are at risk from the shale gas boom currently underway in the US. The threat is two-fold. First, the huge increase in natural gas production derived from shale
Rio Tinto has been placed on downgrade watch today by S&P: Global diversified mining group Rio Tinto’s leverage has increased beyond our previous expectations. We see a risk that Rio Tinto’s debt may rise further in 2013-2014, unless the company makes large disposals or iron ore prices stay well above $120/tonne CFR China. We are revising our outlook
Find below the iron ore complex price table for February 26, 2013: That’s bearish and for good reason. With the Chinese inventory draw down bottoming, plus its declaration that it will prevent rising house prices with obvious knock on effects for real estate development (which accounts for between 15% and 30% of steel consumption depending
All of the ore miners are up this morning despite sharp falls across the iron ore complex prices on Friday and more falls in early Chinese rebar futures trade this morning. The performance could be in anticipation of China’s Flash PM or, more likely, it is the path of Cyclone Rusty, which is headed for
Sorry this is late today. Find below the iron or price table for February 22, 2013: That’s looking rather like the restock is finally done. More downside for iron spot looks inevitable from here. P.S. Reader dexterbland has alerted to me the beasty in the below image which could hold things up a bit:
Find below the iron ore price table for February 21, 2013: And the chart: So, most of the damage was confined to longer dated swaps. Rebar spot obviously held up even if futures got pulverised. The spread between the two is now closed. In case you missed it, the driver of the falls was yesterday’s
Find below the iron ore price complex chart for February 21, 2013: And the chart: So, a new high for the rebound despite falling swaps, flat Chinese steel prices and another largely weak day in rebar futures: My spread charts are still WAY out of whack: And the news overnight from the World Steel Association
Some boom — the second major iron ore boss in as many weeks has left his job. Following the departure of Tom Albanese from Rio Tinto, today Marius Kloppers retired from his role at BHP. He did so after posting the worst profit results since 2005, which the company described as unrelated. So how can
From the AFR this morning the biggest job in Australian business has changed hands: BHP Billiton has appointed non-ferrous division head Andrew Mackenzie as its new chief executive, replacing Marius Kloppers as of May 10. The move comes after BHP reported the lowest interim underlying profits since 2005, but is unrelated to the fall in
Find below the iron ore price complex chart for February 19, 2013: Spot definitely wants a new high. Rebar was strong too by swaps are still stuck as rebar futures fell again. There really is no mystery to why the iron ore spot price has detached from other fundamentals. The FT today makes it plain: The
So, iron ore returns from holidays refreshed and ready to roll – higher. Here is the price complex chart for February 18, 2013: And the chart: So a new high in rebar spot for the move despite sharp falls in rebar futures across the curve (which had run on ahead). Iron swaps were unmoved but
Newcastle thermal coal prices fell slightly. The strike at Colombia’s Cerrejon mine continued into its second week with a resolution between Cerrejon, the Government and miners yet to be reached. Uncertainty over the strike, impacting about 30 million tonnes of thermal coal exports into the seaborne market, may have contributed to choppy trading over the past week. Meanwhile, coking coal spot
Still little movement in the iron ore price complex for February 15, 2013, a little fall in 12 month swaps is all: Interesting news this morning from Gina Reinhart’s banner iron ore project, the $10 billion or so Roy Hill. From the AFR: Gina Rinehart’s Roy Hill iron ore project no longer needs the 1700
No movement yesterday in the iron ore complex. The big news today is Rio’s earnings release (find it below) which confirms that the company is a ragingly successful iron ore company buried under a huge pile of…overmatter…to make it appear diversified and unattractive to suiters. The iron ore division contributed 44% of group revenue but…wait
Again limited movement in iron ore overnight with spot and steel prices stuck. 12 month swaps put on a couple of bucks in anticipation of a positive return from the Chinese New Year break.
By Leith van Onselen It seems the hits just keep on coming for Australian coal exports. On Friday, I reported that the coal market could soon be facing hard times from growing global supplies and lower demand from China. Now, Bloomberg has reported that India plans to build a 327 kilometre rail network that would
Got some chart issues today, but there was no movement in any key price with the Chinese market closed:
By Leith van Onselen In September last year, The Australian newspaper revealed that Japan was attempting to sever oil-linked pricing for Japanese liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. Oil-linked pricing for Japanese LNG imports began in the 1960s. The gas price was linked to the price of oil because it was the substitute for Japanese power
Find below the iron ore price complex table for February 8, 2013: And the chart: Chinese bulk shipping rates have rolled over for Chinese New Year even if the miracle commodity has not: My spread charts continue to howl of a market where fundamentals do not match current prices. Spot to swap ratios are still
By Leith van Onselen Earlier this week, I prognosticated that Australian coal exports could soon be facing hard times due to: Increased competition from US coal exports, due to domestic coal-to-gas switching arising from the US shale gas boom; and A shift away from coal fired electricity generation in China due to rising pollution concerns.
Find below the iron ore price complex chart for February 7, 2013: And the chart: And rebar futures, which were flat. The good run in long rebar futures and spooky strength of spot appears to have finally shoved iron ore futures through resistance. The longer the spot price remains high, the more this will happen,
Here is the iron ore price chart for February 6, 2013: And the chart: Yesterday’s rebar futures market was soft: Yet that still couldn’t stop spot ore. Nor could the big fall in Port Hedland shipments for January: Data…phewy. The spot market wants a new high! No fresh news overnight but I did miss this
Find below the iron ore complex price table for February 5, 2013: Not much to add except to say that despite a flat spot price, rebar futures were again active. The theme of the day was short weakness versus long strength, which to my mind is back-to-front: The news today supports that view, with Westpac’s
Find below the iron ore price complex table for February 4, 2103: And the chart: Iron ore spot seems fatally attracted to a new high. And why not? Although my rebar spot chart is yet to catch up, futures piled it on again: And last week’s inventory data is out and shows an accelerating slide
From late Friday: Preliminary estimates for January indicate that the index rose by 2.6 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, after rising by 3.4 per cent in December (revised). The largest contributor to the rise in January was the increase in the price of iron ore, while the prices of base metals and rural commodities
Here is the iron ore price table for February 1, 2013: And chart: So, no sooner have swaps broken out than they’ve scuttled back under cover. No movement in Chinese steel prices. But the futures market was different with rebar futures piling it on again: My spread charts still look seriously sick. Spot to swap
Find below the iron ore price table for January 31, 2013: And the chart: So, once again defying the doomsayers, 12 month swaps for the miracle commodity have broken out to a new high for the move and put a rocket under spot. More support was found in rebar futures (though no move in spot),
