So! Hope you had a good weekend and here is what happened in the iron ore complex on Friday: Here are the charts. First the ore price: The 12m swap/spot spread has now fully reverted to recent mean: We are reaching the point where we’ll need higher 12m prices to lift the spot price. That’ll
Courtesy of ANZ ANZ Commodity Daily 736 021112
Here is today’s iron ore complex table, which is the reverse of yesterday: However, the big news today is all about the news (as it were). Australia’s economic godfather, Ross Garnaut, spent most of yesterday throwing his wayward children into a blast furnace for daring to dream of an endless commodities boom. “In China thermal
The RBA’s index of commodity prices for October is out and continues its recent dump. If you’re wondering why since iron ore has been powering it’s simple, longer term coal contracts are now getting lowered following falls earlier in the year: Preliminary estimates for October indicate that the index fell by 3.5 per cent (on a monthly
Courtesy of ANZ ANZ Commodity Daily 735 011112
Today’s iron complex table is weak across the board. And, apparently, “analysts” agree that the rally is in peril! From Reuters: Iron ore prices may drop nearly 10 percent over the next three years as top consumer China’s economic growth shifts to a slower gear. …Iron ore is forecast to average $120 per tonne in 2013, down
Courtesy of ANZ ANZ Commodity Daily 734 311012
More sideways action! And the big news of the day? BHP in full reverse gear: BHP Billiton has slashed more than 150 million tonnes of annual iron ore production from its Pilbara iron ore expansion plans in response to the recent price shock in the key steel-making raw material. The cuts are potentially worth $US18
The iron ore rally is definitely beginning to feel tired. The spread to swaps is now at $8.46, which is clearly close to the median of the recent spread range:
Here is today’s iron ore price table: To the charts. Here is the iron ore price: Chinese steel: Thermal coal: Post inventories, which still show little signs of restocking: ANZ release a report Friday suggesting recent falls in the Baltic Dry may suggest the rally is topping for iron ore. The same message has been
It’s an action replay of yesterday, the ore complex found some support in Chinese steel prices, a nice little rally in spot but no support coming though from swaps: 12 month swaps have gone nowhere now for over a month and it’s rather looking like we’ve found a new plateau. I’ve made up a chart
Here is today’s iron ore chart: Definitely looks like the spot market wants to test the $120 ceiling. 12 month swaps aren’t co-operating and the contango is gone but the spread has often been much wider than this so that may not hold spot back: As I’ve said, though, anything over $120 now has highly
All quiet on the Westoren front today. Not much else to read either beyond a bit bullish blather from UBS: Iron ore will probably advance this quarter to levels last seen in July as steelmakers in China, the biggest buyer, rebuild inventories on speculation that the country’s pace of economic growth will pick up, said
Courtesy of ANZ. ANZ Commodity Daily 731 231012
So, your table is below: A good day yesterday for iron ore but less so for its underpinnings. The news was not much better for steel with the release of the September figures for global steel production by the by the World Steel Association: World crude steel production for the 62 countries reporting to the
Courtesy of ANZ. ANZ Commodity Daily 730 221012 (1)
Courtesy of ANZ ANZ Commodity Daily 729 191012
Here’s your overnight ore complex action: Looks like the bulks got their Chinese data bounce one day early. In other news, I mentioned this yesterday but it’s worth repeating. Marius Kloppers has declared the end of the boom: In the 10 years or so that have passed since China first came to the fore as
Courtesy of ANZ ANZ Commodity Daily 728 181012
Here is yesterday’s iron ore price table with a nice bounce across the complex on whatever trivia blew in: But that’s where the good news ends. HSBC yesterday released its quarterly commodities update and iron ore took a pounding, with forecast prices for 2013 falling 27% to $105. It is not a relief exactly, but
Business Spectator’s Ben Potter has a fast and loose take on iron ore today: Third quarter production reports have catapulted the big miners higher as they met or exceeded analyst expectations. This, combined with strong offshore leads and an investment community that is fast becoming less bearish on China provide a near perfect storm for
Courtesy of ANZ. ANZ Commodity Daily 727 171012
Relief for the ore price today with a bounce in swaps: Not so good for Chinese steel, though it’s too early for concern: Relief too for thermal coal, though the Chinese coastal shipping index for coal is not happy: Mostly noise today.
Courtesy of ANZ. ANZ Commodity Daily 726 161012
Another poor day for the ore price. More uncomfortable was that Chinese steel prices reversed. Though it was worse still for thermal coal. Here is the ore chart: And thermal coal explores the wrong side of the tracks: Here’s a longer term chart: That looks like another massive head shoulders pattern to me (and this
From ANZ today: Newcastle physical coal prices hit a 3-month low of USD80/t, in line with other Asian coal prices. Chinese demand remains soft and an oversupply situation is apparent in Pacific markets. The NDRC said Chinese utilities have closer to 29 days of supply (contrary to other reports of 20-25 days of supply). Either way, this is negative, with
And so, big news for ore lovers over the weekend. First, here is Friday’s price table: Here is the ore chart: And the Chinese steel chart: No good news there. Indeed, the ore bounce appears to be over, for now anyway. According to Bloomberg, and as we know already, it was driven by speculation that end-user
As we know, iron ore has enjoyed a good bounce from its lows of almost 30%. Its steel partner, coking coal, however, has not. From ANZ today: Newcastle front-month coal futures declined 1.5% to USD85/t, as demand conditions remain soft. Richards Bay could get some traction from Indian buyers as end-users call for negotiations this week for Nov/Dec
Find today’s ore chart below: $120 suddenly looking pretty tough for ore and thermal coal has resumed its decline too. There is a lesson in thermal coal for all of the bulks as China shifts its energy paradigm and big thermal coal production expansions are hitting a fading growth engine. Expect the same for iron
Courtesy of ANZ. ANZ Commodity Daily 723 111012
