Find below the iron ore price table for May 17, 2103: Rebar futures bounced. Here’s the spot and swap chart: The next chart support is in the $118-$120 area. Looks like we’re going to test it, as previously discussed. Meanwhile, as promised, here are my spread charts. Both remain stretched, with iron ore to swap
Find below the iron ore price table for May 17, 2013: At $15, the 12 month swap to spot spread has returned to historically consistent dimensions for this price range. The spread to rebar remains very wide. So, either both iron ore prices keep falling or rebar keeps rising if the reversion to mean is
Find below the iron ore price table for May 15, 2013: Rebar futures also sold off sharply. Looks like we’re headed for a test of $120 “price floor” and charts would suggest $110 is the next support level. Iron ore got some good news from analysts yesterday when Morgan Stanley argued that ore will remain
Find below the iron ore price table for May 14, 2013: Looks like we’re going to test $120. I’m still not overly bearish. All of that Chinese credit growth has to support something! In news today, the Australian Budget is slowly coming to terms with reality. From the AFR: It may be this year’s single
I noted this morning that Indian sourced iron ore inventories at Chinese ports appear to rising again. There is further news flow suggesting India may be set to resume substantial exports by December. From the Business Standard: NEW DELHI (Reuters) – Goa expects court approval to resume by year-end the production and export of iron ore
Find below the iron ore price table for May 13, 2013: Rebar futures were up slightly. Chinese port stocks edged up again last week to 75.6 million tonnes. Indian source stocks rose again also, up to 18 million tonnes. Whatever the cause, some Indian iron ore appears to be seeping back into the market.
By Leith van Onselen The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has released a special report, available for free download after registration, entitled: “Rock Steady: A Special Report on Coal Demand”, which provides a fairly benign outlook for Australian coal exports on the back of rising Asian demand (summary video above). According to the EIU, global coal
Find below the iron ore price table from May 10, 2013: Not much movement, clearly. Last week I didn’t bother reporting on BHP statements that it expects iron ore to fall. After all these were not new. But some new detail of the giant’s comments is available and is interesting: BHP on Wednesday confirmed
Find below the iron ore price table for May 9, 2013: Rebar futures were down slightly. In news, the WSJ reports that Indian iron ore will remain offline for the foreseeable future: India was once the primary source of spot-market iron ore for China, the world’s largest consumer. But its share started to decline 18
From the AFR comes news that London fund managers are pressuring Rio: The so-called “360” project entails the approval of up to $US5 billion of spending on new mines needed to match port and rail capacity improvements that have already been approved. It would lift Rio’s annual production by 70 million tonnes from the 290 million tonne capacity
Find below the iron ore price table for May 8, 2013:
From ANZ: Bulk commodities firmed. The spot iron ore market was supported by firming China steel prices. In coking coal, BHP settled June contract prices for premium hard coking coal at around USD154-157/t FOB Australia. This is consistent with our forecasts of USD155/t for the second quarter, with a cautious China demand outlook dictating sentiment.
Find below the iron ore price table for May 8, 2103:
Find below the iron ore price table for May 6, 2013: And the charts. For spot: 12 month swaps: So, we have a bounce but it so far failed to undo the technical damage to charts enough to conclude last week’s plunge was a false break. Rebar average: And rebar futures: It looks to me
Find below the iron ore price table for May 3, 2013:
Find below the iron ore price table for May 2, 2013: Here’s some texture from Reuters: “Sentiment’s a bit bad. No one is looking to buy and there are plenty of offers in the spot market,” said a Singapore-based iron ore trader. Two Australian cargoes are among those on offer — one is 165,000 tonnes
Find below the China steel PMI for April courtesy of Bloomberg: After the wild fluctuations of the past few months, stability certainly suggests that restocking cycles are done. However, there is nothing terribly exciting in the figures. Output, new orders, new export export orders are all still falling. In better news, inventories have started to
Find below the iron ore price table for May 1, 2013: No change on Chinese holidays.
Find below the iron ore table for April 30, 2013: And the charts. For spot: 12 month swaps: Rebar average: And rebar futures: Slow trade can probably be put down to May Day holidays. Today’s interesting news is that CISA has issued a plea to Chinese steel makers to…err…stop making steel: Thankfully for Australia the
Find below the iron ore price table for April 30, 2013:
Find below the iron ore price table for April 29, 2013:
The Pascometer seeks out a cheap headline today with some late-to-the-party megabearishness on iron ore: The more bearish iron ore analysts have another voice in their chorus warning about price falls – the China Iron and Steel Association. If they’re right, there are ramifications for the federal budget, as well as the viability of some
Find below the iron ore price table for April 26, 2103: Historic spreads between between iron ore and its sundry prices suggest a spot price in the mid to high $120s. That’s maybe where we are going, though there’s a possible head and shoulders pattern forming but again I wouldn’t get too bearish unless swaps
Find below the iron ore price table for April 23, 2013: Basically the support cast to iron ore prices are signalling further weakness but I wouldn’t conclude yet that a bigger move is on unless swaps breaks to new lows. Last week’s Chinese port inventory data is also out and was more supportive as it continues
Below find the iron ore price table for April 22, 2103: A mixed day then but worth noting that the spreads between spot and swap is now at least $10 wider than historic relationships suggest it should be. And the spread to rebar is still at unprecedented levels. It is perhaps no wonder then that China
Find below the iron ore price table for Friday April 19, 2013: Obviously the rebar charts are not signalling a healthy Chinese steel market, at all. Not that that stopped FMG CEO Nev Power from spruiking like mad on the weekend with the help of Alan Kohler: ALAN KOHLER: And the iron ore spot price hasn’t
Although it’s going unreported as usual, there is a spectacular bear market developing in iron ore equities: Note the juniors leading the way, with the likes of Atlas and Mt Gibson down 75% from 2011 peaks and the majors down between 30-45%. So is this horror run over? No. The reason why we all
Find below the iron ore price table for April 17, 2013 (sorry it’s late, data issues): Looks like real underlying demand is pretty solid but markets are pricing for the future of oversupply. News today confirms it, Altas Iron boss Ken Brinsden gives it to the bears: Mr Brinsden said the investment community’s view on the
In the past two days, Rio Tinto and BHP have both confirmed full year iron ore production guidance. From the AFR yesterday: In iron ore, Rio reported a 7 per cent fall in production from its flagship Pilbara operations to 57.8 million tonnes in the first quarter, compared to the December quarter, as a result of
Find below the iron ore price table for April 16, 2013:
