Commodities

36

Peak oil no more?

Courtesy of Sober Look. Those who keep professing that “peak oil” is just around the corner or has already been reached should take a look at this Harvard paper (ht John A). The author (Leonardo Maugeri) analyzed oil exploration and development projects field by field globally to determine how oil production is expected to grow.

6

China’s hot and cold shipping

Bloomie has got some new indexes for shipping that are showing a rather mixed picture for the Chinese economy: On the on hand, we see a pretty healthy bounce in containerized traffic (red). At the same time, however, China’s Coastal Bulk Freight Index(white) is flat following the big fall last year. The orange line is

11

World steel growth stalled

Overnight, the World Steel Association released it production figures for May and was more zombie growth: World crude steel production for the 62 countries reporting to the World Steel Association (worldsteel) was 131 million tonnes (Mt) in May 2012, an increase of 0.7% compared to May 2011. China’s crude steel production for May 2012 was

7

Bulk commodities still mixed

In recent days we seen a number cross-currents in the bulk commodities. On the positive half of the ledger, the spot  iron price (white) and 12 month swaps have based (yellow) , as have Chinese steel prices (purple and green). The recovery is quite muted as this point, no doubt reflecting generally weak global economic

3

US gas price goes bananas

Courtesy of Sober Look. This morning’s EIA natural gas in storage report took everyone by surprise. We started out with this projection. Bloomberg: The U.S. Energy Department’s natural-gas inventory report, scheduled for release at 10:30 a.m. in Washington, will show that supplies rose 2.6 percent last week, according to a survey of Bloomberg users. The government’s

4

China’s coal glut

Courtesy of Also Sprach Analyst. Regular readers will know that H&H has been covering the decline in the thermal coal price. One of the factors at play is that as electricity production growth stalls in China, and power plants’ coal inventory remains high, inventory elsewhere is rising in ports and warehouses. No one is buying. China

0

Commodities daily

Find below commodities daily courtesy of ANZ. For extra spice I’ve thrown today’s bulks chart, which shows iron ore and 12 months swaps rolling over (blue and yellow). It will be interesting to see what the PROC versus Fed does to the price. Chinese steel prices have at least stopped falling for now (green and

0

A psychological slowdown

Find below another interesting note from the ANZ commodities team about a recent trip to China. It has some good texture and decent analysis around short term developments around stimulus, even if it fails to address the now widely accepted conundrum that China faces vis-a-vis the shelf life of its fixed asset investment model. ANZ

2

Chinese stimulus and iron ore

ANZ released an interesting note late yesterday on the prospects for a rebound in the iron ore price in second half. The note is interesting on a couple of fronts. Firstly, there are some mixed messages coming out of the bank about China’s iron ore stockpile. Regular readers will recall a recent video with ANZ

10

Mixed signals from the bulks

the news that China is not building apartments on the moon did not prevent a solid rally in iron ore spot and 12 month futures overnight. Both up almost 2% (white and yellow lines): However, as you can see, nobody actually in the Chinese steel markets seems to have gotten the AFR memo about imminent

0

Take Chinese bulk defaults in your stride

The ANZ commodity team has a note out this morning suggesting that recent defaults by the Chinese in the bulk commodity space is nothing to be worried about. The note contains some interesting detail and is worth a quick read. However, the note also argues that the recent weakness is not some harbinger of doom

34

Chinese defaulting on bulk contracts

The World Steel Association last night released April crude steel production statistics and news is mixed: World crude steel production for the 62 countries reporting to the World Steel Association (worldsteel) was 128 million tonnes (Mt) in April 2012, an increase of 1.2% compared to April 2011. China’s crude steel production for April 2012 was

14

Is iron ore swimming naked?

It’s not until the tide goes out that you know who’s been swimming naked, said Warren Buffet famously. Today a video by Reuters of ANZ Bank’s Nicholas Zhu sneaking into Qingdao port to examine enormous stockpiles of iron ore raises the discomforting notion that some large component of Australia’s export boom is shriveling in the