China Economy

The Chinese yuan is slipping again and threatening to break down.

Courtesy of FTAlphaville comes RBS: 1.

Cross posted from Investing in Chinese stocks.

Goldman has a go at measuring how fast China is really growing today at FTAlphaville: Given China’s rising importance to the world economy and financial markets, and uncertainty about the interpretation of recent data, the desire for an alternative, higher-frequency measure of growth is particularly acute at present.

This should not improve anybody’s mood.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

From Capital Economics: The IMF’s decision to include the renminbi in the SDR basket will not directly increase demand for renminbi assets.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese stocks CICC Research is forecasting a 10% rise in first- and second-tier city home prices for 2016, with third- and fourth-tier cities to prices fall 5%.

From BofAML: Largely based on top-10 shareholder information disclosed by A-share companies, we estimate that the government likely spent at least Rmb1.5tr in Q3 to support the market (Table 1).

From the FT: The International Monetary Fund’s staff has recommended that China’s renminbi should join the elite basket of currencies used to value its own de facto currency.

From Fairfax: China is on the verge of a “credit event” that authorities will tightly manage to maintain the country’s financial stability, says JPMorgan’s chief Asian and emerging markets equity strategist.

China released its October lending data last night and it was not pretty.

From Westpac today: The Chinese economy grew at a rate below its potential in the first three quarters of 2015.

The much anticipated Q4 China bounce ain’t coming.

From Morgan Stanley on a trip to China: General economy.

Cross posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

From Credit Suisse: The resumption of IPOs has come a bit earlier than market’s expectations, and has got some investors worried about the market being caught in a cross-correction as the stock supply would increase.

The China inflation numbers are out and forget it.

The Shanghai rebound powers on: Macquarie takes a look at margin debt: Brokerage margin positions in China managed a comeback in October, rising by Rmb124bn, or 14% MoM.

China trade balance was out yesterday and shocked markets again with the ferocity of its slowdown.

Cross-posed from Investing in Chinese Stocks. The defaults are starting to pile up and the latest is a cement maker from Shandong, Shanshui (0691).

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

Shanghai is in new bullshit market, apparently, after rising more that 20% from its lows: Via FTAlphaville, HSBC explores the consequences for the bond bubble “that has taken place since August is a liquidity rather than fundamental play.