China Economy

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese stocks.

As China is expected to be included in the IMF SDR basket this week a rather large question has appeared in the MSM, will it rise or fall.

Beijing, we have a problem, from Investing in Chinese stocks: Although first-tier and in demand cities are experiencing drops in inventory, the overall national inventory of new housing has climbed more than 100 million square meters, to more than 686 million square meters.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese stocks: Hope for stabilization in China’s economic slowdown has been smashed by deteriorating data and economic forecasters at Industrial Bank of China have dubbed December the line in the sand.

From Westpac: The Westpac MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (hereafter the CSI) rose 3.3pts from 109.7 in October to 113.1 in November.

From AEP: Known to traders as Dr Copper, the metal is tracked as a barometer of health for the world economy but has increasingly become a rogue indicator.

From Alliance Bernstein We recently started to track employment data and trends through three publicly traded on-line platforms: 51job.com, Zhaopin.com and 58.com.

Following on from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard’s dodgy take on Chinese growth yesterday, below find a series of charts that lay out what’s going on as rough guide.

From Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Barclays has advised clients to jump into world stock markets with both feet, citing the fastest growth in the global money supply in over thirty years and an accelerating recovery in China .

The Chinese yuan is slipping again and threatening to break down.

Courtesy of FTAlphaville comes RBS: 1.

Cross posted from Investing in Chinese stocks.

Goldman has a go at measuring how fast China is really growing today at FTAlphaville: Given China’s rising importance to the world economy and financial markets, and uncertainty about the interpretation of recent data, the desire for an alternative, higher-frequency measure of growth is particularly acute at present.

This should not improve anybody’s mood.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

From Capital Economics: The IMF’s decision to include the renminbi in the SDR basket will not directly increase demand for renminbi assets.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese stocks CICC Research is forecasting a 10% rise in first- and second-tier city home prices for 2016, with third- and fourth-tier cities to prices fall 5%.

From BofAML: Largely based on top-10 shareholder information disclosed by A-share companies, we estimate that the government likely spent at least Rmb1.5tr in Q3 to support the market (Table 1).

From the FT: The International Monetary Fund’s staff has recommended that China’s renminbi should join the elite basket of currencies used to value its own de facto currency.

From Fairfax: China is on the verge of a “credit event” that authorities will tightly manage to maintain the country’s financial stability, says JPMorgan’s chief Asian and emerging markets equity strategist.

China released its October lending data last night and it was not pretty.

From Westpac today: The Chinese economy grew at a rate below its potential in the first three quarters of 2015.