China Economy


China PMIs firm but…

Via China’s NBS comes the manufacturing PMI In November , China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index ( PMI ) was 52.1% , an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month , and was above the threshold for nine consecutive months, indicating that the recovery growth of the manufacturing industry has accelerated. In terms of enterprise scale, the PMI of large, medium and small enterprises was 53.0% ,


How to de-escalate China tensions

Kelly’s cowards returned on the weekend to demand Scott Morrison prostrate himself before Xi Jinping. Paul Kelly led them off: This week Morrison sent a series of messages but his most important theme — tricky but critical — is for Australia’s status as an independent player to be better recognised, as a nation allied to


China sows new COVID-19 lie

Via Sinocism: Raising more questions about the origins of SARS-CoV-2 New theories call for global COVID origin-tracing efforts – Global Times In response to a question about the WHO experts traveling to China soon for work related to COVID-19 origins, Zhao Lijian, a spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday that since COVID-19


China’s debt shakeout intensifies

Via Bloomie: A string of defaults by Chinese state-owned companies has sent shockwaves across the world’s second-largest credit market. But some bonds have fared much worse than others as investors clamber to avoid the next potential blowup. Among the most notable losers: notes issued by Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co., Jizhong Energy Group Co., Tianjin TEDA Investment Holding


China’s “dual circulation” drivel

Via News: It doesn’t sound all that riveting: the fifth plenum of the 19th Communist Party of China’s central committee. Nor does the 14th five-year-plan that sprung from the rubberstamping event, held in Beijing at the end of last month. But buried beneath the bureaucratic bumpf is a radical new plan that China hopes will


Is China entering a financial crisis?

Bartho wrote a nice piece yesterday: There has been a spate of Chinese companies defaulting on their bond repayments in the past few weeks, sending anxious ripples through the market that have even touched China’s sovereign bond yields and caused its central bank to pump liquidity into its bond market to try to calm it.


China’s stimulus pulse fades away

Chinese data for October was out late yesterday and it shows an economy with a fading stimulus pulse. Industrial production was up 1.8% YTD and a more encouraging 6.9% YOY. Fixed asset investment was up 1.8% YTD and retail sales are still the laggard down 5.9% YTD but up 4.3% YOY: The all-important real estate


How China uses subnational diplomacy to exert influence over Australia

Associate Professor Salvatore Babones has released a new report at the Centre for Independent Studies entitled “A House Divided: The AFRB and China’s Subnational Diplomacy in Australia”, which explains how China uses subnational diplomacy to exert influence over Australia. Below is the Executive Summary: Australia is an open society awash in Chinese foreign influence operations,


China’s credit surge rolls on

No end in sight to the latest round of Chinese debt with October leading at 690tr yuan for banks and 1.42tr for total social financing: New loans are thumping along: The rolling annual says it all: Non-bank finance is back big but it’s not so much shadow these days as it is bonds: M2 fell


To beat China, US should tax Ray Dalio out of existence

Via Sinocism: It is Fifth Plenum week as the fifth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party meets in Beijing from Monday through Thursday. Today Xi gave a work report and presented the “discussion drafts” of the proposals for the 14th Five-Year (2021-2025) Plan for Economic and Social Development and


Morrison gas unplan to lift power bills

Sadly, yes, at Domain: Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s push to deliver 1000 megawatts of new gas-fired power capacity into the nation’s main energy grid could discourage investment in battery technology, imperil the clean energy transition and risk financial losses for the taxpayer-backed Snowy Hydro scheme. Experts and industry insiders told The Sydney Morning Herald and


Chinese recovery still hangs on stimulus

China dropped its Q3 data dump late yesterday so let’s take a look. Year to date GDP came in at 4.9%: The growth internals for September were 1.2% for industrial production YTD, fixed asset investment 0.8% YTD and retail sales -7.2% YTD but 3.3% YOY: Property sales were solid in Q3 but have lately tumbled:


China keeps credit pedal to the metal

China’s PBOC released new yuan loans for September last night it remains credit pedal to the metal with total social financing at 3.48tr yuan of which 1.9tr was bank lending: The non-bank share has rebound strongly but that is distorted by the inclusion of local government bonds these days: The three month moving average of


Evergrande finds breathing space

I am not worried about this at all. China cannot afford to let a daisy chain of failures rip through its ponzi-developer sector. It is the key policy lever for stimulus as the world stumbles through COVID. Via Bloomie: China Evergrande Group took a major step toward avoiding a cash crunch that had threatened to roil


Empty apartments drive China PMIs higher

China’s latest batch of NBS PMIs are out and show no surprises. Manufacturing is struggling: In September , the Purchasing Managers Index ( PMI ) of China’s manufacturing industry was 51.5% , an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month , indicating that the manufacturing industry has rebounded. Services, read construction, is booming: In September , the non-manufacturing business activity index was 55.9% , an increase of 0.7 percentage


Chinese housing bubble about to pop?

Via ZH: Is China’s housing bubble – the main “wealth effect” for hundreds of millions of middle class Chinese – finally about to burst? On Friday, trading in onshore bonds of China Evergrande, China’s second largest and the world’s most indebted property developer, was halted after reports it was seeking government help to stave off


Pettis: Chinese economic bounce short-lived

Vai FTAlphaville: This is a guest post by Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University and a senior fellow at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center. His new book ‘Trade Wars are Class Wars’ was co-authored with former FT Alphavillain Matt Klein and is available at all good book stores. On Tuesday, China’s National Bureau of Statistics


China builds its empty fortress of solitude

Below find a full review of this week’s China data. Apologies for the lateness. Had some “issues”. First out was August credit which has had its ears pinned back with TSF at an impressive 3.58tr yuan. Banks made up a lousy 1.2tr of that: Meaning that shadow finance is roaring ahead again, though this now


DFAT head calls out Chinese ‘bullying’

One of the biggest positives to come out of the COVID-19 pandemic is that its has forced the federal government to grow some cajones and stand up to Chinese Communist Party (CCP) bullying. The latest salvo comes from Australia’s top diplomat, DFAT Secretary Frances Adamson, who in a detailed interview in the Weekend Australian vowed


China’s modernising military

Via Sinocism: DOD Releases 2020 Report on Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China > U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE > Release This report accounts for the PRC’s national strategy and the drivers of China’s security behavior and military strategy, covers key developments in China’s military modernization and reform, and provides new insights


China PMIs scream empty apartments!

The one-trick pony stumbles on. The latest Chian manufacturing PMI managed weak growth: In August , the Purchasing Managers Index ( PMI ) of China’s manufacturing industry was 51.0% , a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month , indicating that the overall manufacturing industry was operating smoothly.   New orders grinding higher. New export orders still falling which is pretty remarkable. But


China flogs one-trick pony economy to death

Loads of China data last week during my illness. Let’s catch up. New yuan loans (TSF) were pretty lousy at 1.69tr: Shadow banking share remains off the leash again: The impulse is starting to fade as 3MMA rolls: Rolling annual is still booming: M2 not so much at 11.1%: Broad credit eked out another gain


China PMIs grind higher

Via China’s NBS comes the manufacturing PMI: In July , China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index ( PMI ) was 51.1% , an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month , and was above the threshold for five consecutive months. Export orders bottoming. Services PMI: In July , the non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.2% , a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month , and continued to remain above the threshold.


China blows new housing bubble to grow at all

Chinese data for June is out and is exactly as expected. Quarterly GDP snapped back 9.6% to deliver 3.2% GDP on the year: Internals for the June month continued the recent pattern. Industrial production is rebounding fast at 4.8% year on year and -1.3% YTD. Fixed asset investment is down -3.1% YTD and retail is