China Economy

3

PBOC stays the course

Via Bloomie: China’s central bank said the economy and financial markets are generally stable, though the environment is still “complex,” adding separately that risk prevention should be given greater emphasis. The People’s Bank of China also said the recovery in major developed nations is continuing, according to a statement released Tuesday after a meeting of the advisory

7

China headed for 2% growth

Via Capital Economics:  China’s stimulus-driven recovery is over. Key risks, in particular around the currency, have dissipated, so the coming slowdown should be mild. But the economy’s structural problems are not being addressed. Prospects for growth further ahead are therefore increasingly poor.  Policy support led to a sharp rebound in growth in 2016.

0

Caixin China PMI luke warm

A small rebound in the Caixin China PMI: The PMI climbed back into positive territory in June, with firms noting slightly stronger increases in production and new orders. This prompted companies to increase their purchasing activity, albeit only slightly. However, relatively muted client demand overall led manufacturers to reduce their inventory holdings and trim their

0

Chinese local governments slow

Via Capital Economics: Efforts to curtail off-budget borrowing by local governments have recently helped slow the rise of China’s public debt ratio. But a further rise in government debt is almost certain in future as it eventually foots the bill for the still-rising bad debts of state-owned firms. When Moody’s cut China’s sovereign credit rating

9

Aussie breaks 77 as China PMIs crack along

So much for moar stimulus. China’s June PMIs are cracking along. The numbers: The chart: The same was apparent in the non-manufacturing PMI. The numbers: The chart: And some texture: Sub-sectors, the service business activity index was 53.8% , higher than last month 0.3 percentage points, the service industry to maintain growth. The business activities

20

Chinese urbanisation “complete”

Via Xinhua: With the process of urbanization and industrialization of the basic end of China’s energy demand peak has come. It is expected that by 2020, 2030 and 2050, China’s total energy demand will be reduced to 4 billion tons, 3.74 billion tons and 3 billion tons of standard coal. This is the 26th held

0

Chinese activity firms short term

Via Capital Economics today:  Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) for May shows that growth edged up for the first time this year. This was due to a seasonal jump in passenger traffic around a national holiday. As officials continue their efforts to rein in credit risks, we think activity will slow again soon. 

5

China is still slowing

From Morgan Stanley: Impact of monetarytightening on growth to be manageable: Although the CBRC’s move will not affect domestic liquidity conditions directly, ithas affirmed policymakers’ continued monetary and regulatory tightening stance, which could lead to a continued decline in credit impulse in China. We expect growth will soften in 2H amid credit tightening and a

3

Is China stimulating again?

RBC thinks so: I Further build the case for a tactical factor-reversal trade (1-3 month scope), where on account of a number of ‘higher rates’ macro catalysts and quant seasonality trends, I see scope for ‘Value’ and ‘Size’ to reverse their recent underperformance relative to ‘Anti-Beta,’ ‘Growth’ and ‘Momentum.’ The latest data-point strengthening my view

8

China’s capital flight crackdown shifts to the mighty

Via Caixin: (Beijing) — China’s banking regulator has recently asked lenders to assess their credit-risk exposure to companies active in overseas acquisitions, sources close to the regulator told Caixin, as the country continues to curb a shopping spree that led to a record capital exodus last year. The China Banking Regulatory Commission said the risk

2

Chinese capital outflow slows to trickle

Via Capital Economics:  Capital outflows from China were broadly unchanged last month and are likely to persist at this relatively low level for the foreseeable future as households and firms increase their exposure to foreign assets. But unless sentiment on the renminbi turns significantly more negative again, outflow pressure should remain manageable.  China’s

5

CS: China about to hit the credit accelerator

From Credit Suisse: ■ Growth vs reform: The current waxing and waning of Chinese policy occurs as the authorities try to ensure economic stability while they undertake the very large task of economic reform. Over the last few months reform was “winning” with an effort to reduce some of the excesses in the financial system

1

Chinese house prices slow again

It’s an unusual house price cycle in China but it is following the script in slow motion. May house prices rose 0.7% across the 70 city index and annual growth fell to 10.4%: It is an increasingly bifurcated market with top tiers now flat or falling and lower tiers still growing: The net number of

7

Chinese house prices begin to fall

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks. According to CASS data: The median price of the above cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhuo) in May were 61685 yuan per square meter, 54458 yuan, 22,273 yuan, respectively, compared with April decreased by 3.2%, 0.4%, 0.5%. Another first-tier cities in Shenzhen, the median price of 50423 yuan per square meter,

13

Kyle Bass on wrong currency short as Chinese debt “metastasises”

From Kyle Bass today via Reuters: Hayman Capital Management founder Kyle Bass on Thursday said he remains short the Chinese yuan despite the country’s latest change to the guidance rate, because he believes credit bubble problems are “metastasizing.” “What the public narrative is and what they have been doing behind the scenes are two completely

0

Where will Chinese deleveraging slow growth?

From Goldman today: China: Q&A on money and rates Q1. Didn’t the PBOC suggest that its interest rate policy was partly tied to the Fed policy? Yes, but it does not have to be. The PBOC did not raise rates on open market operations (OMOs) today (and also kept 7-day repo rate fixing broadly stable

0

Chinese credit continues to signal slowdown

China released May credit overnight and the numbers continue the trend of steady slowing. New bank loans cam in a 1.11tr yuan while total social financing was lower at 1.06tr yuan: In short, shadow credit shrank as curbs bite: Total loans were still up 60% year on year for May: And the rolling annual is

5

Chinese data continues to ease

China’s May data dump is out and is solid with a slow slowing developing.  Headline numbers were roughly at consensus with industrial production stable 6.5%, fixed asset investment falling to 8.6% and retail sales stable at 10.7%: Most importantly for Australia, real estate continues to slow. Sales growth eased again to 14.3%: I expect this

26

Recession? In a first, Chinese yield curve fully inverts

Credit stress is now very obvious in China. Interbank markets have all hit new yield highs in recent days: Even more revealing, the Chinese yield curve has fully inverted for the first time in modern history: An inverted yield curve is a classic recession indicator as short end tightening surpasses long term inflation expectations. We’ve seen

37

The Business does the Chinese debt time bomb

Above is an interesting segment on China’s debt time bomb, aired on ABC’s The Business last night, which also threatens the Australian economy. And to put China’s debt build-up into perspective, here’s a summary chart using data from the Bank for International Settlements: Note the explosion in Chinese non-financial sector debt over the past decade.

1

Chinese tightening slams bond issuance

Via the FT: Chinese corporate bond financing hit a record low in May, as a market rout discouraged new issuance while a wave of previously issued notes came due. The combination of tight liquidity and a regulatory crackdown on leveraged investment in bonds has hammered China’s debt market in recent months. Net corporate bond financing

1

Chinese trade firm

China’s May trade is out with exports up 8.7% and imports 14.8%. The trade surplus came in at $40.8b: Iron ore imports were strong at 91.5mt: And steel exports were also up at 6.98mt though down 23% year on year: A solid month. Slowing ahead.

11

China turns capital flight tap off

Via Capital Economics:  The latest rise in China’s foreign exchange reserves suggests that the People’s Bank (PBOC) became net buyer of FX for the first time in well over a year last month. This reflects an easing of capital outflows, which has allowed the PBOC to pare back support for the renminbi.  The

0

Vimal Gor on China in 2018

From the always excellent Vimal Gor today: Another fake break? This month President Trump faced increasing political problems, President Temer was swept up in another Brazilian corruption saga, North Korea lobbed more missiles in their relentless ‘testing’, and China’s credit ratings were downgraded by Moody’s. After a solid start to the month, markets started to