Thanks to Captial Economics. Travel: People movement to cities: Movie sales: Empty apartment sales: Coal-fired power output: Industrial lights intensity: It’s still a weak recovery suggesting at least another quarter to get back to something resembling inhibited normal. It’s not v-shaped, which would entail a massive pent-up demand overshoot.
Via Nikkei: Amid the coronavirus pandemic, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has proposed building an economy that is less dependent on one country, China, so that the nation can better avoid supply chain disruptions. The call touched off a heated debate in the Chinese political world. In Zhongnanhai, the area in central Beijing where leaders
There are signs. March price growth was barely positive at 0.1%, even if it lifted slightly from February’s -0.1%. Annual growth is falling at a good clip to 5.3%: The weakness is broad-based: Raw data: With the balance of flat or falling prices across 70 cities now 44, for first negative ratio for the first
Via Fox: EXCLUSIVE: There is increasing confidence that COVID-19 likely originated in a Wuhan laboratory not as a bioweapon, but as part of China’s effort to demonstrate that its efforts to identify and combat viruses are equal to or greater than the capabilities of the United States, multiple sources who have been briefed on the details of early actions
Why is anybody excited about it? It is terrible and a very poor leading indicator for everyone else coming out of lockdown. Via Capital Economics: Since when was a recovery stalling at 80% of output anything other than a catastrophe? Asia is still getting worse: Europe too: And the US: I ask you, can
Or does it? Over Easter, China reported new yuan loans for March. The numbers were big at 5.15tr yuan TSF and 2.85tr bank loans of that: Shadow finance has returned: But the three-month moving average adds some sobriety to the numbers, with it much lower than previous flood stimulus episodes: The rolling annual popped: M2
Because nobody does global diplomacy like the CCP, via The Spectator: China has tried to restore its image after lying to the world about the seriousness of its coronavirus outbreak, but its attempts at humanitarianism have turned out to be as slippery as its wet markets. After COVID-19 made its way to Italy, decimating the
Cross-posted from Sinocism: Xi chaired another Standing Committee meeting, again focused on epidemic control and restarting the economy. The readout from this meeting makes it sound like the leadership is increasingly concerned about the risks of a second wave of infections as well as the deteriorating global environment which will have a significant drag on
A series of articles from Bloomie today add up to more than the sum of the parts. First, this: Amid all China’s efforts to contain the economic damage of the coronavirus outbreak, a crucial development slipped by almost unnoticed — the creation of the first national bad-debt asset manager in 20 years. The economic dislocation
It’s the always stimulus that never dies. The Chinese economic recovery is basically toast, via Capital Economics: With people movement still weak and industry stalled, there is one bright spot as usual: Can an economy survive on empty apartments alone? China is going to find out. The world is not supportive of anything else. Asia
Via Capital Economics, the Chinese industrial recovery has stalled at around 80% capacity: Some better measures for the consumer but the industrial recovery has stalled miles below capacity. It may be that those apartment sales numbers are just stimulus anyway. Asia is now shutting down fast: And Europe: Plus the US: It ain’t pretty.
By becoming a member: BREAKING: #China joins U.N. Human Rights Council panel, where it will help select next world monitors on freedom of speech, enforced disappearances, arbitrary detention—and on health. @hillelneuer: “It’s like making a pyromaniac into the town fire chief.”https://t.co/E2vYfYcNcD pic.twitter.com/1UkF5T4MHU — UN Watch (@UNWatch) April 3, 2020 ‘Nuff said.
Via Caixin: China’s service sector continued to face challenging conditions in March, with the COVID-19 outbreak continuing to weigh on the performance of the sector. The declines in output and new orders were not as severe as those seen in February, however, when the country imposed stricter measures to reduce the spread of the virus.
Via Bloomie: China’s authorities are proving surprisingly reserved when it comes to unleashing support measures for its ailing economy, and investors aren’t liking the reticence. …China’s relatively cautious program of easing speaks to the government’s concerns over price stability and the country’s large pile of debt. That’s even as the economy is forecast to grow
Via Reuters: A county in central China’s Henan province said on Wednesday it had virtually banned all outbound movement of people, following several cases of coronavirus infection in the area. No one can travel out of Jia county without proper authorisation, the county, which has a population of about 600,000, said in a post on
From the NBS: In March , China’s manufacturing purchasing manager index ( PMI ) was 52.0% , a 16.3 % increase from the previous month . From the perspective of enterprise scale, the PMIs of large, medium and small enterprises were 52.6% , 51.5% and 50.9% respectively , up 16.3 , 16.0 and 16.8 percentage
Hmmm…via Hollywood Reporter: Over the past two weeks, hundreds of movie theaters in the country had begun to reopen. No reason for the policy reversal was given, but insiders believe the government is worried about a potential second wave of coronavirus infections. China’s film regulators has slammed the brakes on plans to gradually reopen the
Via Bloomie: Since last week, emails from foreign clients have been flooding into export manager Grace Gao’s in-box, asking to delay orders already made, putting goods ready to be shipped on hold until further notice, or asking for payment grace periods of up to two months. Gao’s firm, Shandong Pangu Industrial Co., makes tools like
China continues to crawl back towards normal activity. Via Capital Economics: While the rest of the world advances into shutdown. Europe: Asia: US: And if you think that China can resist a global shock, let alone when it is already on its knees, then think again: The post-virus v-shaped recovery narrative is fantasy for China