China Economy

A new Morgan Stanley report looks today at how to hedge a China “super bear” scenario for investors: The new government’s policy drive to deleverage the banking sector has become more apparent.

Find below an awesome chart pack on the Chinese economy from ANZ.

By Leith van Onselen China’s “field of dreams”, “build it and they will come”, approach to construction shows no signs of slowing. In 2011, China opened the the world’s longest sea bridge and an underground tunnel in Quingdao (pictured below).

By Leith van Onselen Above is a very interesting debate aired late yesterday on CNBC between Bill Smead of Smead Capital Management, Stephen Green of Standard Chartered, and Simon Warner of AMP Capital, assessing the implications of China’s latest second-quarter growth figures, which came in at 7.5%.

Chinese GDP for the June quarter is out and came in on consensus at 7.5% and quarterly at 1.7%.

China’s June bank lending figures were out on the weekend and do not disappoint those looking for evidence that last month’s tight interbank rates have hit lending.

Cross-posted from Kate Mackenzie at FTAlphaville.

How low can they go?

Michael Pettis’ wrote in his exclusive newsletter yesterday: Growth rates over the next decade cannot exceed 3-4%.

Cross-posted from Kate Mackenzie at FTAlphaville.

Find above an interesting short video interview just screened on CNBC with Richard Jerram, Chief Economist at the Bank of Singapore, arguing that there is more downside risk in China due to past over- investment.

Courtesy of ANZ comes further detail of China’s weak June trade numbers: CHINA GROWTH WILL FURTHER DECLINE ON WEAK TRADE After the cracking down of over-invoicing and round tripping trade since May, the Chinese trade figures unmasked the reality.

Chinese trade data for June is out and there’s no joy with a double miss to expectations.

A small double-whammy in China’s inflation figures just out today.

Citibank is the latest major investment firm to downgrade Chinese growth: We downgrade 2013 and 2014 growth forecasts to 7.4% and 7.1% – The growth rebound in late 2012 proved short-lived, with cyclical upturn restrained by structural gravity.

Cross-posted from Kate Mackenzie at FTAlphaville.

Regular readers will know that I track the steel sub-component of the official Chinese PMI each month.

A couple more global heavy-hitters join the China hard landing debate today.

From Barclays late yesterday came the following excellent note: Premier Li has yet to fully detail his policy framework, we expect Likonomics to consist of three key pillars – no stimulus, deleveraging and structural reform.

China has its two non-manufacturing PMIs out today.