Australian recession


Saul Eslake joins the recessionista

The eminently sensible Saul Eslake, Economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, is out with a new note weighing into the Australian recession debate and hang onto your hat: As the ‘resources investment boom’ begins to fade … The investment phase of the ‘resources boom’ looks to have passed its peak. Although resources investment should


Roger Montgomery on mining capex risks

By Leith van Onselen Above is a video interview that screened on Switzer TV on Friday with Roger Montgomery, head of Montgomery Investment Management, discussing the risks to the Australian economy as the mining investment boom unwinds. Montgomery states that mining services is “cactus” and believes that the decline in mining capital expenditures are highly


Ed Shann joins Australian bear school

Another heavy-weight of Australia economics weighs in on the bear side of the economic narrative today. Ed Shann appears at the AFR with a bear roar: Both the Treasury and Reserve Bank have warned that Australia’s transition from mining-driven growth to faster non-mining growth may not be smooth. They are being optimistic. The adjustment could


Recessionista wanted dead or alive!

By Leith van Onselen Treasurer Wayne Swan rides his mule into the ground today hunting down the recessionista: Mr Swan called media stories on the prediction “deeply irresponsible” and “incredibly reckless”, calling such forecasts efforts “to get their company’s name in the paper”, while criticising media outlets for not pointing to previously false predictions of Australian recessions.


Are we talking ourselves into recession?

One of the more persistent slogans of recent economic commentary is that Australia is in danger of “talking itself into recession”. This is, it seems to me, the kind of bastardisation that Australian populists are especially good at. Via the FT this morning, Wayne Swan illustrates the point nicely: Over the years I have come


Alan Kohler, recessionista!

From the mercurial Alan Kohler this morning comes some plain talking: Yesterday Michael Chaney expressed what most people in business are feeling right now. The chairman of National Australia Bank and Woodside Petroleum called the coincidence of a decline in the terms of trade and a long election campaign a “perfect storm” and added: “I would hope


Goldman downgrades Australia on recession risk

Yesterday Goldman Sachs downgraded its Australian growth and dollar targets on rising recession risk: Australian economic growth forecast to be sub 2% in 2014 Following the release of 1Q13 economic growth data for Australia and some weaker more timely reads on economic activity in Australia we are lowering our 2013 economic growth forecasts from 2.4%


WA: Close but no recession

Cross-posted from Mark the Graph With the release of this week’s national accounts, there was a lot of breathless reporting that two quarters of negative growth in state final demand meant Western Australia was (technically at least) in a (perhaps domestic) recession.   The counter view, put forcefully by David Gruen from Treasury at a


The Australian recession we don’t have to have

Suddenly an Australian recession is not such a shocking idea to the MSM. Today’s press is full of recession hand-wringing and for good reason. Yesterday’s GDP figures painted a worrying picture of an RBA that is behind the curve. Of fiscal settings that are wildly inappropriate. Of a dollar in outer space. And of a


BHP cans coal

More miming rationalisation emanating from BHP today: BHP Billiton has all but ruled out pursuing growth projects in its coal division in the short to medium term and has raised the possibility of looking to sell more assets, because of a weaker outlook for the business. In presentation slides released for an analyst visit to its


Garnaut delivers cold drenching to elite

Last night  I attended Victoria University’s 2013 Vice-Chancellor’s Lecture and dinner. It was presented by Professor Ross Garnaut who, can I say, threw a bucket of cold water on a shocked audience of senior public servants, academics and business people in presenting a very difficult future for Australia. The lecture was titled “Ending the great


NAB warns on mining cliff

Slowly but surely the better minds of Australian market economics are turning up the pitch of worry. NAB has completed a very useful analysis of the last week’s BREE major projects report and the results are no different to my own assessment: frightening. However, the detail is interesting. First is iron ore: Overall, the value