Australian Property

The AFR has picked up one of MB’s consistent themes: Gavin Hegney, of Perth-based valuers Hegney Property Group, said supply of property had surpassed demand and home prices would likely drop in the coming year.

It’s getting amusing watching the market of interest rate forecasting, which is desperately grappling with historically atypical conditions, from the AFR: “The growth and inflation outlook suggests the RBA sees no threat of a rate hike until at least 2018,” Macquarie Research analysts said in a note to investors.

From UBS: The value of FIRB approved applications for foreign investment in housing doubled (+102% y/y) in 13/14 to a record high $34.7bn. Within this, the majority 78% share was directed to new housing at $27.2bn (spiking 152% y/y) – of which a 79%+ share was concentrated in NSW and Victoria alone.

Click to view Core Logic-RP Data’s latest weekly housing market update, which provides a useful snapshot of the housing market as at 19 April 2015.

From RP Data: Combined capital city weighted clearance rate remains steady, showing buyer confidence continues.

The long awaited Senate Affordable Housing Report – 8 May 2015 was released late on Friday afternoon.  It is a very large (496 pages) pdf file.

The AFR is reporting that: Melbourne’s city hall is taking steps to unleash as much as $500 million worth of development on real estate it now controls around the city’s fresh food market.

By Leith van Onselen In the week ended 7 May 2015, the Core Logic-RP Data 5-city daily dwelling price index, which covers the five major capital city markets, rose by 0.12% (see next chart). Values rose in three major capitals and fell in two (see next chart).

By Leith van Onselen Residex has released its house and unit price results for March, which revealed 0.95% growth in house values over the month but only 0.18% growth in unit values.

The HIA new home sales release for March is out: In March 2015, total seasonally adjusted new home sales increased for a third consecutive month, by 4.4 per cent.

From Gotti at Dad’s Army, who channels our Harry again today: Sydney apartment developers like Harry Triguboff are very concerned at what is happening in Melbourne because they fear if the Melbourne apartment market cracks, it will spill over into Sydney.

By Leith van Onselen Australian Finance Group (AFG) has released its housing finance data for the month of April, which registered a large drop in monthly mortgage applications, but a big increase year-on-year.

From ABC’s Fact Check confirming MB’s own analysis: As property prices continue to rise across Australian capital cities, in particular Sydney, the debate around how to address housing affordability problems has intensified.

By Leith van Onselen SQM Research has released its stock on market figures for the month of April, which registered a 2.8% monthly reduction in the number of homes for sale, with for sale listings also down by 0.1% over the year (see below table).

From the high priest of Triguboffinomics, Gotti, at Dad’s Army: For the first time in many years leading apartment developers have become very nervous about a pending fall in the values of Sydney and Melbourne apartments plus parts of the suburban residential housing market in both cities.

As we head into further RBA rate cuts, today or in the next few months and then again next year, macroprudential measures are going to take centre stage first to control the narrowing number of housing markets in blowoff and then later to provide further easing.

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released dwelling approvals data for the month of March.

From Prime Minister Abbott: The Commonwealth Government is taking action to strengthen the integrity of the foreign investment framework.

Click to view Core Logic-RP Data’s latest weekly housing market update, which provides a useful snapshot of the housing market as at 19 April 2015.

By Leith van Onselen Fitch is the latest to question the view that Australia has a housing shortage, noting the following today via The ABC: Fitch’s conclusion was that the Australian housing market did not appear to be undersupplied, contrary to what housing industry groups and many independent analysts have argued.

By Leith van Onselen Following on from my post yesterday on RP Data’s daily dwelling values index results for April, RP Data has released its full results, which also cover the smaller capitals and regional areas (see next table).

By Leith van Onselen Yesterday’s private sector credit aggregates data, released by the RBA, revealed a strengthening of mortgage growth to 7.3% in the year to March 2015 (see next chart).