By Leith van Onselen Many of us were hoping in vain that a Shorten-led Labor Government would follow the will of the electorate and lower Australia’s immigration intake back to sensible historical levels: Sadly, the opposite is true. In February, Labor’s shadow immigration minister, Shayne Neumann, committed to a turbo charged migrant intake: Mr Neumann said
Via William Bowe: Federal opinion poll aggregate and seat prediction model, drawing on polling by Newspoll, Galaxy, Ipsos, YouGov, Essential Research and ReachTEL. State results displayed through the tabs below are breakdowns of federal voting intention, rather than state voting intention.
Via the AFR’s official muckraker: Is there genuinely no bow too long for our sibling mastheads TheSydney Morning Herald and The Age to draw in their advancement mission for former Liberal deputy Julie Bishop? …Wait, apparently you can! As if six nauseating years of Peter Hartcher’s recurrent JBish hagiographies weren’t enough, the political editor – an indulged dinosaur of obsolete foreign affairs savoir-faire; a
Good job ABC’s The Business: The incoming Labor Government must immediately toughen the Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism (ADGSM) with a $6Gj price cap or export net back that includes LNG plant capital costs, whichever is lower. Create a new regulator to enforce it. Install “use it or lose it” laws to ensure no production
Wishful thinking at the AFR: Labor is clinging to the slimmest of leads over the Coalition, putting it on track to fall over the line in Saturday’s federal election. The latest The Australian Financial Review-Ipsos poll shows Labor leading the Coalition by 51 per cent to 49 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis, down from
Final look at election odds before the election: There have been some improvements for the Coalition overall. But not enough – if every single one of the 16 “Maybe” and “Toss-up” seat falls to the Coalition, they will only have 72 seats, with Labor on 75. The Coalition then would also need to convert at
Via the ABC: Bob Hawke, Australia’s 23rd prime minister and Labor Party legend, has died at the age of 89. Mr Hawke led the country and his party from 1983 to 1991, and his contribution to public life helped shape modern Australia. A great conciliator, Mr Hawke’s achievements as prime minister included modernising the economy
Via Domain: Thousands of robocalls by Yellow Brick Road founder Mark Bouris urging voters to reject Labor at Saturday’s election have fallen foul of election laws amid accusations he told “lies” about Bill Shorten’s negative gearing proposals. …”If Labor wins and they bring in negative gearing changes and the capital gains tax changes, house prices
Via The Guardian: Labor remains ahead of the Coalition in the final Guardian Essential poll of the 2019 campaign, and a majority of voters believe Bill Shorten will be the winner on Saturday night. The final survey of 1,201 voters has Labor in front of the Coalition 51.5% to 48.5% on the two-party preferred measure, which is the
If you want a demonstration of just how pathetic, hypocritical, empty, corrupt and dangerous Australian leadership has become, look no further than this, via Domain: Prime Minister Scott Morrison has made a last-minute pitch to Chinese voters, swooping into Sydney’s Chinatown in a bid to shore up support for three candidates whose futures could hinge
Via Bloomie: Donald Trump ratcheted up his battle with China for dominance of 5G technology networks, moving to curb Huawei Technologies Co.’s access to the U.S. market and American suppliers. The president signed an order Wednesday that’s expected to restrict Huawei and fellow Chinese telecommunications company ZTE Corp. from selling their equipment in the U.S. Shortly afterward, the Department
We all know who made the Kingslayer. It was Australian mining that killed Kevin Rudd and his mining tax, putting the knife in Bill Shorten’s hand, who backed Julia Gillard. Later, the Kingslayer struck again, this time to sink the knife into Julia Gillard, as she failed abysmally to sell the groundbreaking carbon price, also
Via The Guardian comes a non-fake lefty at last: She marked her return on Facebook, with a video straight out of a Quentin Tarantino film, buttoning her jacket, arranging her hair and slipping on stiletto heels to heavy metal music. “I’m ready again,” she declared to camera. “Let’s get this bus rolling.” Mette Frederiksen, leader
By Leith van Onselen From Roy Morgan Research comes an interesting profile of the Australian Greens: Greens supporters are concentrated in the highest socio-economic quintiles with 31% of Greens supporters in the highest socio economic AB quintile in 2018, unchanged from 2010, and 24% of Greens supporters in the C quintile, also unchanged. This means
Via The Australian come Labor candidates Sam Crosby and Jason Yat-Sen Li: “But I need to check. There shouldn’t be requirement for a deposit as the long-term visa requires … Let me ask.” Mr Li said. “So, is there no requirement for me to work?” the woman continued to ask about the working requirement. “No requirement,”
The Australian won’t report the simple truth of its own poll so we turn to Via Mark the Ballot: Newspoll for 9-11 May (one week out from the only poll that matters) predicts the national two-party preferred (TPP) voting intention will be (wait for it) 49 per cent for the Coalition to 51 for Labor.
Via the AFR: China sees a potential change of government in Australia as a chance to reset the bilateral relationship, which soured under former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull as concerns around security overshadowed the economic benefits. …”We would like new government to overturn the previous ruling on banning Huawei. It requires political wisdom to achieve
Via The Australian: An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian also shows an upswing in popular support for Bill Shorten, whose net approval ratings have hit a four-year high. With both sides preparing for a final electoral assault, with a $10 million advertising war starting today, Labor remains in the box seat to win government and retains
I know it’s hard for them to let go with their history of Gough Whitlam’s leadership and all but it’s time the ALP gave up on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). There are a few very simple reasons why. First, the US has done so. It started with the Obama Administration’s “pivot to Asia” which was
Via Mark the Ballot: The past 12 days have seen a sustained decline for the Coalition’s mean win probability on betting markets, from a campaign high of 29.2 per cent to a record low of 17.2 per cent this morning. Date Mean Coalition Win Probability (%) 2019-04-11 19.30 2019-04-12 20.75 2019-04-13 21.65 2019-04-14 21.96 2019-04-15
Quick update to election odds from earlier this week after the final leadership debate: Both major parties improved odds in seats they were already favoured to win, but there was little major movement elsewhere. Things still look grim for the Coalition: If every single one of the 21 “Maybe” and “Toss-up” seat falls to the
Here they are: Given the basis of them is the dodgy PEFO take ’em with a grain of salt. Surplus schmurplus. Full report.
Very important stuff from Clive Hamilton today: Understanding China’s Threat to Australia’s National Security As long at the Communist Party rules China it will pose a persistent and serious threat to Australia’s national security. Over the last two years we have made considerable progress in setting up defences against Beijing’s subversion and covert influence. But
Via The Australian comes worsening electioneering around Labor and China. Trade Minister Simon Birmingham said: …“I note Labor have distanced themselves from the remarks but Paul Keating is not an isolated figure in terms of … Bob Carr and others who sit within the (Labor) ranks,” the Trade Minister said during an election debate in Adelaide
Cross-posted from Mark the Ballot: A couple of days ago I made the following statement: I must admit that the under-dispersion of the recent polls troubles me a little. If the polls were normally distributed, I would expect to see poll results outside of this one-point spread for each side. Because there is under-dispersion, I have
That’s the view of Michelle Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan Research: What seemed like a foregone conclusion after the Liberal Party Leadership upheaval late last year has suddenly become a competitive contest between the L-NP Government led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison and the Bill Shorten-led ALP Opposition. After Turnbull was ‘turfed out’ from his
I did the test and it told me to vote Green: I’m much more economically liberal than that and the thought of voting Green makes me want to barf (even more than voting for the others). From a sample of one I obviously can’t draw any conclusions. Interested in viewer experiences. Try it here.
Via Epoch Times: Australia is preparing to debut its version of the Chinese regime’s high-tech system for monitoring and controlling its citizens. The launch, to take place in the northern city of Darwin, will include systems to monitor people’s activity via their cell phones. The new system is based on monitoring programs in Shenzhen, China,
Via Domain: Australians rate climate change as the top threat to the country’s “vital interests”, the first time it has topped the list of concerns, according to Lowy Institute polls going back to 2006. The polling, of 2130 adult respondents between March 12 and 25 by the Social Research Centre, found 64 per cent agreeing
At Domain this is quite a tea-party, Paul Keating and Bob Hawke give Scummo a reform gobfull: It is a blatant denial of history for Scott Morrison to allege that the Labor Party cannot manage the economy when he knows the design and structure of the modern Australian economy was put in place exclusively by the
