Australian Politics


Fake green Teal demands mass immigration

Anybody hoping for sensible policies from our teal independents should be taken aback by Independent Teal for Wentworth, Allegra Spender, who penned a contradictory article in The AFR preaching environmental “sustainability” while simultaneously calling for a big increase in immigration: Government must provide a clear pathway to sustainability. My priority will be to work with


Blundering Albo sells out to China on day one

The press is all dewy-eyed about this but is it good strategy? China should dump its tariffs on Australian exports if it is serious about mending relations with Canberra, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has suggested, as he reassured the region a change of government in Australia should not be mistaken for a change in the nation’s resolve


Phew! Opinion polls got it right this time around

Sydney University polling expert Professor Simon Jackman says the performance of pollsters has been “pretty good” in 2022, after getting the outcome of the 2019 federal election wrong. All major national published polls correctly predicted a Labor victory, and their two-party preferred projections were close to the actual voting patterns. Labor has received around 52%


Federal ICAC Labor’s first big test

Labor may need to negotiate with teal independents if it wants to fulfil its pledge of legislating for a national anti-corruption commission by the end of 2022. The teal independents have stated their support for a robust bill put forward by independent MP Helen Haines. Her model for a national integrity commission is based on


New Suffragettes obliterate Liberal Party

The angles on this revolutionary election are everywhere: Greens in QLD. TPP on its deathbed. Rise of the people power independents. Labor won with 33% of the vote. Money politics wiped out. Liberal Party decimation and looming annihilation. City versus country. Chinese electorates and the national interest. So on and so forth. But, only a


Thank god that’s over

The angles on this election are endless and will take time to settle. All I want to add today is the basic relief that Australia has rejected the bottom of the barrel. The Morrison Government was, by any objective measure, a disgrace. It had no behavioral standards, was the most corrupt in modern times, had


Bill Shorten: Negative immigration behind Australia’s stunning jobs market

Yesterday evening, former Labor leader and shadow minister for the NDIS and government services, Bill Shorten, admitted that Australia’s stunning jobs market – the best in generations – has been driven by the collapse in immigration over the pandemic: Rafael Epstein: We do have a remarkable number today: the lowest unemployment rate since 1974… Do


Bear markets and recessions

Some history of bear markets and recessions from Goldman. —- A recession is not inevitable, but clients constantly ask what to expect from equities in the event of a recession. Our economists estimate a 35% probability that the US economy will enter a recession during the next two years and believe the yield curve is


Labor 57.7% chance of victory

IPSOS: Excluding undecided voters, Labor’s primary vote has fallen two points to 36 per cent, while the Coalition’s first preferences have jumped three points from 32 per cent to 35 per cent. The Greens are on 13 per cent, One Nation 5 per cent, the United Australia Party 3 per cent and others and independents


Is Labor or the Coalition a better bet for the economy?

Is Labor or the Coalition a better bet for the economy? Fundamentally, the two major political parties share an outlook on the Australian economy. Both prefer a mass immigration-driven economy to the traditional model of advancing productivity. This economic model delivers headline GDP growth, which politicians love to claim is their doing. However, under the bonnet


Scott Morrison should read own housing affordability report

Prime Minister Scott Morrison yesterday attacked Labor for claiming that the Coalition’s policy to allow first home buyers to borrow up to 40% of superannuation to purchase their first home would “blow up the housing market”: [Morrison] took a swipe at Labor’s criticism of the policy, saying the party had “lost touch completely” after it


Late swing to incumbent arrives

There is always a late swing to the incumbent government as undecided voters stick with the devil they know. Today it arrives. Resolve: When voters were asked to name the parties that would receive their preferences, the results showed Labor held a lead of 51 to 49 per cent in two-party terms, a significant narrowing


Coalition’s super-housing plan would increase inequality

On Sunday, the Morrison Government announced that if reelected, it would allow first home buyers to borrow up to 40% of superannuation to purchase their first home, capped at up to $50,000 (see yesterday’s article). Under the policy, first home buyers would need to have $125,000 in their superannuation account in order to withdraw the


ScoMo was right to keep AUKUS secret from Labor

Anthony Albanese is upset that Labor was not consulted about AUKUS until 24 hours before it was announced even though the Biden administration demanded bipartisan support given the long horizons for the deal: Prime Minister Scott Morrison has denied that Australia broke with the Biden Administration when it decided not to consult Labor about its


Minor parties run policy rings around majors

Prosper Australia has released its 2022 Federal election scorecard, which compares their policy platforms against the major Lib/Lab duopoly. Prosper’s scorecard covers the following key areas of policy, ranked in order of importance: Tax reform – Here we are looking for policy that shifts economic activity from unproductive rent seeking. We are looking for tax