Australian Politics

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Election ignores voters’ concerns around mass immigration

By Leith van Onselen Many of us were hoping in vain that a Shorten-led Labor Government would follow the will of the electorate and lower Australia’s immigration intake back to sensible historical levels: Sadly, the opposite is true. In February, Labor’s shadow immigration minister, Shayne Neumann, committed to a turbo charged migrant intake: Mr Neumann said

8

Poll Bludger gives election to Labor

Via William Bowe: Federal opinion poll aggregate and seat prediction model, drawing on polling by Newspoll, Galaxy, Ipsos, YouGov, Essential Research and ReachTEL. State results displayed through the tabs below are breakdowns of federal voting intention, rather than state voting intention.  

15

Shorten should send JBish to Beijing

Via the AFR’s official muckraker: Is there genuinely no bow too long for our sibling mastheads TheSydney Morning Herald and The Age to draw in their advancement mission for former Liberal deputy Julie Bishop? …Wait, apparently you can! As if six nauseating years of Peter Hartcher’s recurrent JBish hagiographies weren’t enough, the political editor – an indulged dinosaur of obsolete foreign affairs savoir-faire; a

18

Polls give Labor an easy win

Wishful thinking at the AFR: Labor is clinging to the slimmest of leads over the Coalition, putting it on track to fall over the line in Saturday’s federal election. The latest The Australian Financial Review-Ipsos poll shows Labor leading the Coalition by 51 per cent to 49 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis, down from

64

Bob Hawke dies

Via the ABC: Bob Hawke, Australia’s 23rd prime minister and Labor Party legend, has died at the age of 89. Mr Hawke led the country and his party from 1983 to 1991, and his contribution to public life helped shape modern Australia. A great conciliator, Mr Hawke’s achievements as prime minister included modernising the economy

36

Bouris deploys Spruikbot Telephunken U-47 army

Via Domain: Thousands of robocalls by Yellow Brick Road founder Mark Bouris urging voters to reject Labor at Saturday’s election have fallen foul of election laws amid accusations he told “lies” about Bill Shorten’s negative gearing proposals. …”If Labor wins and they bring in negative gearing changes and the capital gains tax changes, house prices

27

Essential: Labor to win easily

Via The Guardian: Labor remains ahead of the Coalition in the final Guardian Essential poll of the 2019 campaign, and a majority of voters believe Bill Shorten will be the winner on Saturday night. The final survey of 1,201 voters has Labor in front of the Coalition 51.5% to 48.5% on the two-party preferred measure, which is the

26

Scummo kow tows to tyranny as US fights for liberal democracy

If you want a demonstration of just how pathetic, hypocritical, empty, corrupt and dangerous Australian leadership has become, look no further than this, via Domain: Prime Minister Scott Morrison has made a last-minute pitch to Chinese voters, swooping into Sydney’s Chinatown in a bid to shore up support for three candidates whose futures could hinge

26

US bans Huawei as “five eyes” reel

Via Bloomie: Donald Trump ratcheted up his battle with China for dominance of 5G technology networks, moving to curb Huawei Technologies Co.’s access to the U.S. market and American suppliers. The president signed an order Wednesday that’s expected to restrict Huawei and fellow Chinese telecommunications company ZTE Corp. from selling their equipment in the U.S. Shortly afterward, the Department

45

Roy Morgan: Fake Greens dominated by Champagne Socialists

By Leith van Onselen From Roy Morgan Research comes an interesting profile of the Australian Greens: Greens supporters are concentrated in the highest socio-economic quintiles with 31% of Greens supporters in the highest socio economic AB quintile in 2018, unchanged from 2010, and 24% of Greens supporters in the C quintile, also unchanged. This means

23

Open borders Labor nutters confused by own grey migrant visa

Via The Australian come Labor candidates Sam Crosby and Jason Yat-Sen Li: “But I need to check. There shouldn’t be requirement for a deposit as the long-term visa requires … Let me ask.” Mr Li said. “So, is there no requirement for me to work?” the woman continued to ask about the working requirement. “No requirement,”

14

Newspoll: Labor going to win

The Australian won’t report the simple truth of its own poll so we turn to Via Mark the Ballot: Newspoll for 9-11 May (one week out from the only poll that matters) predicts the national two-party preferred (TPP) voting intention will be (wait for it) 49 per cent for the Coalition to 51 for Labor.

17

Why the Chinese Communist Party is backing Labor

Via the AFR: China sees a potential change of government in Australia as a chance to reset the bilateral relationship, which soured under former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull as concerns around security overshadowed the economic benefits. …”We would like new government to overturn the previous ruling on banning Huawei. It requires political wisdom to achieve

16

How the Coalition lost the unlosable election

Via The Australian: An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian also shows an upswing in popular support for Bill Shorten, whose net approval ratings have hit a four-year high. With both sides preparing for a final electoral assault, with a $10 million advertising war starting today, Labor remains in the box seat to win government and retains

12

Betting markets hose Scummo

Via Mark the Ballot: The past 12 days have seen a sustained decline for the Coalition’s mean win probability on betting markets, from a campaign high of 29.2 per cent to a record low of 17.2 per cent this morning. Date Mean Coalition Win Probability (%) 2019-04-11 19.30 2019-04-12 20.75 2019-04-13 21.65 2019-04-14 21.96 2019-04-15

11

Quant election odds update

Quick update to election odds from earlier this week after the final leadership debate: Both major parties improved odds in seats they were already favoured to win, but there was little major movement elsewhere. Things still look grim for the Coalition: If every single one of the 21 “Maybe” and “Toss-up” seat falls to the

35

Beijing campaigns for Labor to govern Great Southern Canton

Very important stuff from Clive Hamilton today: Understanding China’s Threat to Australia’s National Security  As long at the Communist Party rules China it will pose a persistent and serious threat to Australia’s national security. Over the last two years we have made considerable progress in setting up defences against Beijing’s subversion and covert influence. But

24

Labor gets its China comeuppance

Via The Australian comes worsening electioneering around Labor and China. Trade Minister Simon Birmingham said: …“I note Labor have distanced themselves from the remarks but Paul Keating is not an isolated ­figure in terms of … Bob Carr and others who sit within the (Labor) ranks,” the Trade Minister said during an election debate in ­Adelaide

6

There’s a problem with the election polls

Cross-posted from Mark the Ballot: A couple of days ago I made the following statement: I must admit that the under-dispersion of the recent polls troubles me a little. If the polls were normally distributed, I would expect to see poll results outside of this one-point spread for each side. Because there is under-dispersion, I have

19

Is the Federal Election headed for a ‘photo finish’?

That’s the view of Michelle Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan Research: What seemed like a foregone conclusion after the Liberal Party Leadership upheaval late last year has suddenly become a competitive contest between the L-NP Government led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison and the Bill Shorten-led ALP Opposition. After Turnbull was ‘turfed out’ from his