Australian Economy

I am not going to sugarcoat this.

A special Sunday post for a truly unusual and alarming situation. From China this morning: At 04:00 on February 1st, 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 2590 newly confirmed cases (1921 cases in Hubei Province) and 315 severe cases (268 cases in Hubei Province).

As if we needed this, at the AFR: Investment in renewable energy projects collapsed by more than 50 per cent last year, according to fresh data from the Clean Energy Council that counters Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s claim of “record” spending in the area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has released its private sector credit aggregates data for the month of December 2019: A chart showing the long-run breakdown in the components is provided below showing broad-based weakness: In particular, the flow of personal credit continues to fall, falling by 5.1% in the 2019 calendar year.

Via the UBS team: While it’s too early to know the full potential impact of coronavirus 2019-nCoV, it is clearly another negative for the economy, on top of the catastrophic bushfires.

This time in China, at News: Two Australians in China have been infected with coronavirus, Health Minister Greg Hunt has confirmed.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released export and import prices for the December quarter, which portends a sharp fall in Australia’s terms-of-trade when the national accounts are released in early March.

It’s fair to say that 2020 has already been a nightmare for Australian retailers. A fortnight ago it was reported that 161 ‘bricks-and-mortar’ stores had already shuttered in 2020. And since then, Jeans West has gone into administration (with 146 stores likely to close) and Kaufland has abandoned its planned Australian operations.

Coronavirus cases worldwide have soared again today to 7186 with deaths at 169.

Via Domain come more cases: Australian residents trapped in the epicentre of the coronavirus in China are considering rejecting the federal government’s offer to evacuate them to Christmas Island, as Qantas prepares for an emergency flight into Wuhan.

You would think a policy process is rocket surgery the way that this government butchers it.

Emma Johnston, Dean of Science at UNSW Sydney, is the latest to warn that Sydney’s water supply is under threat from a combination of population growth, reduced rainfall, greater evaporation, and contamination from bushfires.

Via LiveWire comes Chris Joye: In huge news today, IFA reports that the Financial Planning Association of Australia has “sought the removal of the current stamping fee exemption in relation to listed investment entities due to its inherent conflicts of interest for advisers”.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the December quarter 0f 2019, which registered plummeting headline and underlying inflation on weakening domestic demand.

Via our friends at GLJ Research LLC in the US, comes an exclusive interview with China expert Dr Victor Shih who, in my experience, knows what he talking about.

Via the ABS: December Key Statistics The All groups CPI rose 0.7% this quarter, compared to a rise of 0.5% in the September 2019 quarter.

Via Westpac: Despite the lift, the Leading Index growth rate remains below zero, indicating momentum tracking well below trend.

CommSec has released its latest State of the States report, which once again ranks Victoria on top due largely to a combination of strong population growth, construction, and debt-fuelled consumption: How are Australia’s states and territories performing?

Cross-posted from Online Opinion: Australian politicians never tire of telling the public how they are investing record amounts in infrastructure.

We know that China has some 60m people in lockdown.

It’s pre-bushfires and coronavirus but it was weak anyway, from NAB: Key messages from the Survey: The final monthly business survey of 2019 provides further evidence that activity stabilised in Q4.

Via The Australian: In a statement to the Johannesburg Stock Exchange released on Monday, Woolworths Holdings, the South African company that owns David Jones, said sales were 4.9 per cent higher over the 26 weeks to December 29.

AMP chief economist, Shane Oliver, has warned that labour underutilisation is now “a chronic problem for Australia”, is far higher than other developed nations, and will continue to depress wage growth: “It has been trending up this year and has been high for a while now, since the global financial crisis,” he said.