Australian Dollar

Australian Dollar Analysis, News and Forecasts

The Australian dollar, Aussie dollar (AUD) is one the world’s great commodity currencies. Founded in 1966 and floated in 1983 the Aussie “battler” is the 5th most traded currency in the world despite the economy being only the 12th largest by GDP.

The Australian dollar spent much of its first two decades post-float consistently devaluing from the pre-float value of $1.48 US dollars in 1974 to a low of 47 cent in 2001.

Subsequently it broke this huge downtrend with the rise of the Chinese economy and it’s insatiable demand for raw materials – especially those inputs into steel production, iron ore and coking coal – which Australian was endowed with in abundance. It topped this enormous turnaround in 2011 at $1.11 versus the US dollar.

As the super cycle entered decline so too did the Aussie, falling to a low of 68 cents in 2016 and still falling.

However, the Australian dollar  had became popular as a small reserve currency holding with foreign central banks. As the value of the currency virtually halved during the bust they kept buying. Because global central banks were fighting both low inflation and oversupply worldwide, many engaged in an overt currency war, deliberately devaluing their currencies to capture or protect global market share of production. This was exacerbated by private sector flows pursuing the “chase for yield”.

This proved a challenge to Australian macroeconomic managers as the commodity bust persisted. Without the lower value, the Australian economy was unable to compete in non-resource sectors. The Reserve Bank of Australia embarked on a series of interest rate cuts, jawboning and, eventually macropudential policy, to bring the Australian dollar to fair value.

There are five drivers to the currency. Australia’s relative position vis-a-vis Chinese and its own growth; interest rate differentials, the strength or otherwise of the US dollar; the terms of trade and sentiment. Each of these tips into any fair value model but over time the primary driver is the terms of trade. The relative strength of each waxes and wanes with wider trends. For instance, during the “tech bubble” of the late nineties the Australian dollar was battered lower by poor sentiment as it was seen as a pre-tech dinosaur. After the “tech bust”, the currency rapidly recovered as sentiment turned favourable for real assets like commodities.

MacroBusiness covers all apposite data and wider analysis of these issues daily.

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Is the Australian dollar carry trade back?

Via Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: As bonds have rallied furiously in recent weeks, an interesting development to note is that Australian real yields have remained flat, while US real yields have fallen sharply to negative from positive. As a result, the Australian-US real 10-year bond yield differential has closed to -0.1% from -0.4% in

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Its all swings and roundabouts with the Chinese overnight indicating they won’t retailiate against Trump’s latest tariffs (and they’ll overlook his lying about phone calls too!), which sent risk markets sharply higher, dragging the USD along as well. Treasury yields dropped, with the 10 year losing 10 points as money went back

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Macro Afternoon

Another relatively mild session across risk markets here in Asia today until late in the session with traders eyeing the latest musing from China on the trade war with the US.   Chinese stocks were the worst off with the Shanghai Composite down a handful of points again, remaining below 2900 points while the Hang Seng

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Its all about Brexit – no trouble – overnight with risk markets tentatively moving forward, only Pound Sterling suffering any stress due to Boris’ suspension of Parliament. The USD rose slightly while Treasury yields were relatively stable through a large auction, with the latest DOE oil inventory figures giving oil prices a

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Risk rebounds, Australian dollar sinks

DXY was up last night as EUR sank. CNY found some support: The Australian dollar did not lift at all: EMs were also weak: Gold was strong: Oil too on a big US inventory draw: Metals were mixed: Big miners bounced: EM stocks didn’t: US junk is good, EM not so much: Treasuries were bid:

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Macro Afternoon

A relatively staid session across risk markets here in Asia today following a small blip higher on Wall Street overnight. Only Chinese stocks are in the red with the Shanghai Composite down a handufl of points to be back below 2900 points while the Hang Seng Index has continued its mild retreat, down 10 points

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk markets remained unconvinced of any real development in the US/China trade war as Trump gets called out on his bald-faced lies following the G7 meeting. US stocks retreated slightly while the USD is little changed against the majors, as Treasuries firmed across the curve. The latest German GDP was left unrevised

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Macro Afternoon

A bit of hope and optimism is sneaking into Asian share markets today following the reversal on Wall Street overnight, although continued protests in Hong Kong are weighing locally. Safe havens are still getting a bid, with gold and Yen both rising while Treasury yields are falling. Chinese stocks have split with the Shanghai Composite taking

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The dead cat bounce had some kittens overnight with the US and China looking to return to the negotiating table before the trade war re-ignites again. Stocks recovered mildly on Wall Street while the USD came back from its slump, as Treasury yields nudged higher again. In economic news, the slump in German

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Why the US dollar is strong

Via Zoltan Pozsar at Credit Suisse: The FOMC should forget about r* for the moment and focus on Sagittarius-A* – the supermassive black hole at the center of global dollar funding markets. The black hole is the foreign RRP facility, which has seen close to $100 billion of inflows since the beginning of the year.

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Macro Afternoon

Not quite a bath of blood, but its been a red day across Asian stock markets in the delayed weekend response to the tremendous selloff on Wall Street on Friday night.   Chinese stocks are leading the way down this time with the Shanghai Composite closing 1.2% lower to 2863 points while the Hang Seng Index is off even more,

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The dead cat bounce is now over as the orange mirkin couldn’t put any life back in, swamping the Chinese with tariffs and a tirade on Friday night, sending Wall Street into a frenzy. It will be a bath of blood on Asian markets this morning as Chinese authorities reacted in kind,

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks have shrugged off the poor confidence from overnight and are bidding higher going into the weekend close.  Chinese stocks are leading the charge with the Shanghai Composite up nearly 0.5% to 2897 while the Hang Seng Index is doing the same, up to 26173 points. Price had been threatening the high moving average on the daily chart, but buyers

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  No room for optimism on overseas markets last night as the lack of direction in Asia yesterday translated into mild selling on both sides of the Atlantic. Treasuries sold off slightly while gold retraced on some slightly hawkish Fed comments. Looking at the action on Asian markets yesterday, where Chinese stocks were quite mixed

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Macro Afternoon

Stock markets in Asia are oscillating between small losses and tiny gains, with traders looking to the Fed again as it holds it symposium tonight in Wyoming. Chinese stocks are quite mixed with the Shanghai Composite again hovering on another scratch session going into the close, up three points to 2883 while the Hang Seng Index is the

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Some more stability or instability depending on your point of view returned to equity markets overnight with the Fed minutes absorbed without much fuss as no bad macro news equating to higher risk sentiment. Weekly oil inventories were much less than expected, sending Brent higher while WTI crude was stable, as safe

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Australian dollar on a hiding to nothing

DXY is till at breakout versus a weak EUR and CNY: The King Dollar sat on the Australian dollar but it lifted versus other DMs: EMs were stronger: It’s BTFD for gold: Oil was soft: Metals mixed: Miners weak: EM stocks better: And junk: Treasuries were sold: Bunds more so: Aussie bonds were solid: Stocks

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Macro Afternoon

The bounce has deflated here in Asia although Chinese stocks are just holding on to the inversion in risk sentiment overnight with the USD gaining slightly today. The Shanghai Composite is hovering on a scratch session going into the close, currently unchanged at 2877 points while the Hang Seng Index is also unmoved at 26231 points. Price

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The bounce is over! An ounce of disappointment is bringing a pound of pain to stock markets overnight, with both sides of the Atlantic closing at their session lows as Trump states he’s not ready to do a deal with the Chinese over their long running trade dispute. The USD was weak across