MacroBusiness covers Australian banks from the perspective of their macro-economic role, as political economy actors, as investment propositions and in terms of financial stability and capital adequacy. Australian banks have played a crucial role in inflating the Australian property bubble, exist within an utterly privileged position as “too big to fail” institutions and operate within a deeply distorted financial architecture that has Australian tax payers well and truly on the hook in the event of trouble. MacroBusiness seeks to define this role for investors as well as change it in the name of the Australian national interest.
APRA has released its monthly banking statistics for March and growth improved slightly on the month to 0.6%, the best score this year: It is good to see life in the market despite the lure of rising asset prices. Still, the trend towards lower growth is well intact in the year on year chart at
At least that’s the verdict of Credit Suisse with the half year result today: Event: ANZ reported (company defined) cash earnings of $3,182mn (up 10% on $2,896mn 1H12) 2% short of our top of market $3,253mn estimate but 1% better than the $3,135mn consensus average. Interim DPS of $0.73 (up 11% on the $0.66 pcp)
From Moody’s today comes a not unexpected downgrade for QBE. The negative outlook is a bit more surprising: New York, April 21, 2013 — Moody’s Investors Service has downgraded the issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings of QBE Insurance Group Limited (QBE; QBE.AX) to Baa1 from A3. The action completes a review for downgrade initiated on
By Leith van Onselen The Q&A session of Tuesday’s speech by RBA Assistant Governor, Guy Debelle, contained an interesting tid-bit on bank offshore borrowings, which Debelle believes will not grow from their current level, and might even fall slightly, over the foreseeable future: Certainly, Debelle’s comments that bank offshore borrowings have peaked are backed-up by
By Leith van Onselen Today, the Age has run an article on the big fall in wholesale funding costs currently being experienced by Australia’s banks: Australian bank funding costs have fallen to the lowest level since the global financial crisis, raising pressure on lenders to pass on any future interest cuts in full… During the
From Banking Day today comes a glimpse of the future as the AOFM withdraws from the RMBS market: You might expect the financial services industry to argue that, long term, a market should be allowed to fail if it cannot support itself without government support, but there are a large number of industry participants who
The December 2102 quarter of Fitch’s Dinkum Index is out today: Fitch Ratings-Sydney-09 April 2013: Fitch Ratings says that mortgage performance in Australia deteriorated slightly in Q412, despite a low interest rate environment, stable house prices and living costs as well as low unemployment. The Dinkum Index, which records 30+ delinquencies in the Australian prime
By Leith van Onselen In September 2008, only days after the Collapse of Lehmann Brothers in the US (marking the beginning of the Global Financial Crisis), the Australian Treasurer, Wayne Swan, directed the Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM), the Australian Treasury’s financing arm, to commence purchasing residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) from smaller (mostly non-bank)
APRA released a discussion paper on Basel III reforms today and it included the following tid bit: In addition, APRA accepts that ADIs may wish to disclose further information on regulatory capital ratios. It therefore proposes to provide anaddendum that compares capital ratios under APRA’s requirements (after applying national discretions) and under Basel III rules
The wild west of Australia’s pre-GFC banking expansion is on display today at Banking Day: HBOS Australia and Bankwest incurred lending losses over the four years to 2011 equal to more than one fifth of their loans, a review by a UK parliamentary committee into HBOS, the bank’s then owner, found. The UK committee released
There’s been much recent discussion on MB and from contributors to this blog on the merits of the RBA’s conditional liquidity facility (“CLF”), as well as more broadly recently following a series of articles by Chris Joye at the AFR. I’d like to try and make clear the importance of the CLF and the interconnectedness
In a probable challenge to Joe Hockey, who I suspect has not been consulted, Wayne Swan has not just reappointed Glenn Stevens today but a new Chairman of APRA as well and several new positions at the RBA: Today I announce the reappointment of Mr Glenn Stevens as Governor of the Reserve Bank for a
By Leith van Onselen Early last month, the AFR’s Chris Joye wrote a timely article questioning the merits of, and processes around, the RBA’s Committed Liquidity Facility (CLF) for Australia’s banks: The Reserve Bank of Australia’s unique Committed Liquidity Facility – a little-known, taxpayer-backed “line of credit” to help banks overcome solvency crises – creates
The AFR has an interesting story today about Macquarie Bank seeking to grab its share of the Australian mortgage magic pudding: Macquarie Bank has posted an astonishing 55 per cent growth in mortgages to $6.2 billion over the past six months as it seeks to take advantage of big profit margins on home loans and ramp
APRA has released its February banking statistics and deposit growth is going bye, bye on the month up just 0.1% and year on year growth is down to 6.6%. Here’s the aggregate chart with a plateau forming: The month on month chart which is fading: The year on year chart which is tumbling: It doesn’t
Talking to the ABC this morning, incoming Treasurer Jo Hockey said: “I, like others, have taken advantage of the lower interest rates to try to pay down the principal. But I know, like everyone else, that that’s just a temporary feature.” Well, Joe, if you continue to pay your mortgage ahead of schedule it won’t be
If I could go long regulator caution right now I’d be getting rich. And no, I do not mean caution as applied to the regulated. I mean caution as it applies to regulatory reform. This week has seen reactionary speeches from senior RBA and APRA officials insisting that current financial regulations are more than adequate
After the RBA’s irresponsible exhortation to the banks to ramp up wholesale borrowing last week it is something a relief to see Westpac today declare that deposits will remain a key focus. From the AFR, according to senior executive Brian Hartzer: Mr Hartzer said on Tuesday that the bank was prioritising growing deposits and strengthening
Following Friday’s dreadful speech from APRA’s Charles Littrell, APRA Chairman John Laker delivered better in addressing liquidity requirements and any prospect of bank capital return. On the first Laker said: “We have already been offered advice that APRA should adopt the revisions without demur, although it is not always clear that commentators have fully understood
Find below a disappointing speech this afternoon from APRA’s Executive General Manager, Charles Littrell, dedicating much time and space to backslapping APRA’s discretionary approach to financial stability and giving macroprudential reform short shrift. We know that APRA did a poor job in the years before the GFC because without the wholesale intervention of government into the
Find below a very good speech today given by RBA Asssitant Governor Malcolm Edey on the history of pre and post GFC banks and lending. I could punch a few holes in it but in toto it is a very thoughtful dissertation on where we’ve been, where we are and where we’re going. Recommended reading.
The RBA has stated its position on macroprudential controls thusly: We also must, of course, heed the lesson that, whatever the framework, the practice of financial supervision matters a great deal. Speaking of supervisory tools, these days it is, of course, considered correct to mention that there are other means of ‘leaning against the wind’
Last week’s eminently sensible suggestion by the Greens that Australian banks should pay fees to the Australian tax-payer for the policies that protect them has again illustrated the parlous state of Australia’s political economy. First of all, why is it only the Greens that have suggested it? The government immediately reiterated its abdication on the
The Greens get a big tick of approval this morning: The Australian Greens have proposed a tax on the big four banks for government insurance that would raise up to an extra $11 billion over the next four years. The minor party proposes a levy of 0.2 per cent on all bank assets above $100
Chris Joye has a good piece today examining the shortcomings of the RBA’s Committed Liquidity Facility (CLF) for banks (cash for coconunts as we call it at MB): The Reserve Bank of Australia’s unique Committed Liquidity Facility – a little-known, taxpayer-backed “line of credit” to help banks overcome solvency crises – creates as many problems
Looks like I mistook tone for substance in my recent assessment that S&P was getting more bullish on Australia. Following the recent release of the sovereign report, I contacted former Australian sovereign analyst Kyran Curry and he confirmed that S&P’s stern outlook for Australia had not changed. That is obvious today with the release of
This morning APRA released its January banking statistics and it is no surprise to see the downtrend in deposit growth being entrenched. In January deposits grew just 0.23%: Year on year growth is falling fast, down now to 7.3%: Total deposits are leveling off: This will be the combination of the income blow from the
Regular readers will know that MB has been arguing for new macroprudential rules – that is, hard and fast controls on lending such as LVRs – to be used in monetary policy management. The reason why is to ensure that as this business cycle develops banks do not return to their old dodgy lending practices.
Recently I’ve read and heard opinions expressed that securitisation, particularly residential mortgage backed securities (“RMBS”), are no longer relevant to the Australian financial system. Nothing could be further from the truth. RMBS is central to maintaining the solvency and liquidity of all banks/ADIs in Australia and cometh the offshore credit squeeze are likely to be
From Banking Day comes the news that on Friday: …Westpac priced the Series 2013-1 WST Trust. The A$1.9 billion class A tranche, with a weighted average life of three years, was priced at 85 basis pointed over the one-month bank bill swap rate. Pricing on the $71 million class B tranche and the $97 class
