Victorian Treasury warns of credit rating downgrade

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Victoria’s Department of Treasury & Finance (DTF) will release a pre-election budget update on Thursday. Among other things, it will include the latest figures on the state’s debt burden, with net debt now forecast to top $197 billion in mid-2030.

Victorian net debt

Heavily redacted documents released via Freedom of Information laws show that the DTF had warned incoming Treasurer Colin Brooks in August that Victoria’s rising debt and interest payments could result in a downgrade of the state’s AA credit rating.

The briefing pack warned that interest repayments are projected to cost taxpayers $12 billion in mid-2030, comprising 9.6%. This is dangerously close to the 10% threshold that the state was told three years ago could trigger another ratings downgrade from AA.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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