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The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) November Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP), released on Tuesday, raised its forecast for the nation’s unemployment rate.
As illustrated below by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors, the RBA now expects the unemployment rate to rise from its current level of 4.6% (trend) to 5.1% by the end of 2028, up from 4.8% in the August SoMP:
Recent statements from senior RBA staff, most notably Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser and Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter, suggested Australia’s unemployment rate would need to rise above 5% to tame inflation.
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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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