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Major banks CBA, NAB and HSBC have downgraded their outlooks for the Australian economy amid rising interest rates and inflation, along with falling housing prices and turnover.
CBA forecasts another per capita recession:
Belinda Allen, head of Australian economics at CBA, has slashed the bank’s GDP growth forecast to just 1.0% in 2027, down from 1.8%, meaning Australia would experience another per capita recession, where the economy grows more slowly than the population.
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CBA also doesn’t expect GDP growth to return to 2.0% until the second half of 2028, one year later than previously tipped.
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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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