War headlines today.
- Trump and Netanyahu reportedly in a screaming match.
- Gulf oil production back to pre-war levels: OPEC.
- No progress on talks.
Brent and cracks appear to have completed their flush.
LNG bounced harder.
Iranian attacks are not slowing so far.
Neither are Ukrainian attacks after the brief phony pause.
Without some kind of peacemaking breakthrough, I can’t see prices going lower. This is going to take a long time.
The immediate outlook for price gains is probably worse for LNG. Europe’s winter storage is the worst on record.
Qatari shipments are grinding higher but still at half-mast.
US export capacity expansion is coming but not fast enough.
If we get peace, it will trigger a massive crash in global LNG prices.
If not, the major supply expansion will bring prices down, but they will stay high due to geopolitical premiums.
Either way, Australia won’t benefit because we don’t tax gas profits and allow a cartel to set the local price.
