A few months ago, Perth looked like the nation’s last remaining housing stronghold, with values holding firm while they crumbled across the rest of Australia.
However, revisions from Cotality, combined with deteriorating conditions, now show Perth leading the nation’s house price bust.
As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, Perth’s seasonally adjusted monthly price growth (shown in yellow) has switched firmly from boom to bust:
The non-seasonally adjusted data isn’t much better, with Perth values declining a hefty 1.7% over the past month:
Over the past quarter, Perth dwelling values have declined by 4.8% – the largest decline among the major capitals, tied with Sydney:
The outlook for Perth home prices is poor. Listings in Perth are tracking around 65% higher than a year ago – the biggest rise in the nation:
Source: Cotality
At the same time, sales volumes have fallen harder in Perth than anywhere else – down around 19% in the year to September:
Source: Cotality
Finally, vendors in Perth are discounting more sharply than anywhere else apart from Sydney (tied at -4.8%), suggesting they are attempting to cut prices to meet the market but still can’t make a sale:
Source: Cotality
Perth has always been a boom-and-bust housing market. We are now firmly in the bust phase.
