How much more world trade can China steal?

Thursday 8 October 2026

Goldman asks the question in less obnoxious terms.

China’s export rise is historically exceptional. From 2000 to 2025, China’s share ofn global nominal goods exports increased from 4% to 15%, surpassing the peaks
of Germany in the 1970s and Japan in the 1980s.

With import volumes unlikely to rise significantly given the pursuit of “self-reliance”, China’s trade surplus continues to reach new highs, raising the question of how much further Chinese exports can expand.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.