First home buyers don’t want to catch a falling knife

Tuesday 13 October 2026

Earlier this month, housing minister Clare O’Neil boasted that the government’s expanded 5% deposit scheme, introduced on 1 October 2025, had ‘helped’ more than 100,000 people into the housing market.

Users of the Albanese government’s 5% deposit scheme

In reality, the scheme lured 100,000 first home buyers into debt to buy near the top of the market.

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.