Aussie unemployment is set to jump

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Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock recently suggested that the unemployment rate may need to rise to 5%, up from 4.6% currently, to ease inflation pressures in Australia.

RBA unemployment forecast

Bullock said that a higher unemployment rate could ease the strain on the economy’s capacity to produce goods and services, which is currently tight because of high demand and stagnant productivity growth.

On Thursday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released job vacancies data for the August quarter of 2026, which fell by 0.9% over the quarter and by 1.4% year-on-year to 325,000.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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