A commodity hit for the federal budget

Monday 5 October 2026

The 2026 Intergenerational Report, released last month, forecasts that the federal budget will remain in deficit for the next 40 years, with tax receipts falling short of expenditure.

A major headwind for the federal budget is the expected decline in corporate tax receipts from the mining sector amid lower commodity prices.

The Australian Taxation Office’s (ATO) latest corporate tax transparency report shows that the nation’s largest companies paid $87.5 billion in taxes during 2024-25.

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.