RBC says buy gold.
We’ve stayed consistent this year, sticking with the forecasts we published back in December of last year, and for good reason. Repeatedly in our weekly “Commodity Comment, ” we have highlighted that while the underlying drivers for gold may have been on pause, they remained intact. Despite more than a lost quarter for ETP holdings, we thought that the return of uncertainty, de-dollarization, and debasement concern-driven allocations remained on the horizon, and that those flows would return to push gold prices higher— a view supported by gold’s early-August recovery, current pricing, and the pattern of inflows. We remain of the view that gold should spend most of its time in the $4500-5000/oz range for what remains of this year (a view unchanged and with high conviction), and we now specifically highlight our middle-to-high scenario range for Q3 and Q4 (as well as annual) for gold prices going forward. By year-end,we are leaning towards our 2026 high scenario ($4929/oz), and similarly, in 2027, we favor ourhigh of $5296/oz. Regardless, our mid-to-high scenario range remains themost likely price bandacross our forecast horizon (see table below). What is driving this view more broadly?
I agree entirely with the fundamental thesis. But I disagree with the timing.
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