Intergenerational Report 2026 highlights case for tax reform

Thursday 24 September 2026

The 2026 Intergenerational Report (IGR) forecasts that the federal budget will remain in deficit for the next 40 years:

The IGR projects government payments to rise from 26.6% of GDP to 27.7% in 40 years but assumes tax receipts (which account for more than 90% of total receipts) do not exceed a historical high of 24.2%.

“We’re trapped in a vicious cycle of growing government spending and deficits”, JudoBank’s chief economist Warren Hogan warned. “There has been a lack of discipline on spending; the discipline has given way in the past five to 10 years”.

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.