Australia’s economy narrowly avoids recession

Wednesday 2 September 2026

Various bank economists predicted that the economy would slide back into a per capita recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in real GDP per capita, ahead of Wednesday’s Q2 2026 national accounts release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

However, the result was slightly stronger than expected, with Australia’s real GDP expanding by 0.4% in the June quarter, matching population growth.

As a result, real per capita GDP growth was essentially flat in the June quarter, meaning that Australia avoided sliding back into recession following the March quarter’s small decline:

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.