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Leading up to Wednesday’s June quarter national accounts release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Australia had experienced 10 out of 15 quarters of negative per capita GDP growth, with the March quarter of 2026 printing at -0.1%:
Following the release of the GDP partials by the ABS on Monday and Tuesday, economists are forecasting that the economy will officially dip back into a per capita recession.
CBA downgraded its GDP estimate to just 0.1% in the June quarter, largely due to softer public demand than it had estimated.
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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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