A bigger and poorer Australia

Tuesday 22 September 2026

The inaugural Intergenerational Report (IGR) in 2002 forecast real GDP per capita at $114,265 today.

However, analysis by independent economist Chris Richardson, reported in The AFR, suggests that real GDP per capita was just $99,742 in the year to 30 June 2026.

Real per capita GDP is lower than expected because productivity growth has collapsed. Meanwhile, governments have masked the problem by supercharging immigration, resulting in the overall economy being around 3% larger today than forecast in the 2002 IGR.

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.