Could Albo’s melons save us from the gas cartel?

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Gas cartel HQ is busy massaging Japanese norks for panic.

….as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese grapples with the fallout from his comments last month about a gift of melons from Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi…Trump has combined a charm offensive on Takaichi with typical economic coercion involving tariffs to push Tokyo to invest more heavily in the US.

Did he “grab her by the pussy”? As Donald Trump suggested he does.

I mean, honestly, both men are gross and stupid, but worrying about Albo’s norks versus Trump’s misogyny is comparing a common cold to the bubonic plague.

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Cartel HQ continues.

The shift is already showing up in long-term contracting. Australia supplied 25.8 million tonnes of LNG to Japan in 2025, about 40 per cent of its imports, compared with just 4.5 million tonnes, or 7 per cent, from the US.

But Japanese buyers have since signed about 10 million tonnes a year of additional long-term US LNG contracts for delivery around 2030 and beyond, while virtually no additional long-term Australian supply has been contracted over the same period, according to the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan.

Thank Christ for that. Japan takes a decent slice of QLD gas.

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Japanese-linked Queensland LNG

Project Japanese buyer/link Approx. volume
QCLNG Tokyo Gas 1.2 Mtpa
QCLNG Chubu Electric / other Japanese interests ~0.4–0.5 Mtpa
APLNG Japanese buyers/trading interests ~1 Mtpa+
GLNG Japanese portfolio/trading interests smaller/variable
Total direct Japanese offtake ~3 Mtpa, perhaps 3–4 Mtpa

That’s roughly 200Pj that could be sold in Australia.

Alas, the structure of the incoming gas reservation does not maximise this potential.

The current gas reservation only includes gas that is post-existing contracts and spot gas, so any new contracts will be reserved at 20% anyway.

In short, the article is complete nonsense so long as Albo sticks to his reservation plan.

At least there is some sense in VIC:

Victorian Premier Ben Carroll is facing mounting pressure to dump key aspects of Labor’s controversial gas policy, amid new polling showing more than two-thirds of the state’s voters believe anyone building or buying a new home should have the option of a gas connection.

With a ban on gas connections to new residential builds set to come into effect from January 1 as part of Andrews-Allan energy minister Lily D’Ambrosio’s signature “Gas Substitution Roadmap”, a Redbridge poll of 1006 Victorian voters shows 68 per cent support having the option of gas in new homes, and just 14 per cent opposed.

As deputy premier in 2024, Mr Carroll publicly placed himself at odds with Ms D’Ambrosio, telling ABC radio: “I have gas at home. We’re keeping it (for) a range of reasons, and I think that’s symbolic of a lot of Victorians. A lot of Victorians like cooking with gas.”

The corrupt Grattan Institute concocted this policy farce to foist the cost of the energy transition off the gas cartel and onto households.

It should be scrapped as soon as possible.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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