Dump’s mad war is turning inexorably endless, in complete contradiction to MAGA and everything he’s supposed to stand for. Overnight we had:
- Trump threatens to strike Iran “hard” either tonight or tomorrow.
- Oil continues to rise close to month-highs after reports of Houthi missiles being fired at Saudi Arabia.
- Trump claims that the US blockade of Iranian ports has been “reinstated” and stipulates that ships desiring to transit will be paid at a rate of 20% of their cargo.
- Around the weekend, the US targeted around 140 Iranian military sites, and Iran attacked US-affiliated installations throughout the Gulf.
- Tensions over shipping are high as commercial ships continue to pass through the strait under US protection despite Iran’s claims that it is closed.
- As diplomacy is obviously failing, oil prices are rising due to increased danger to the world’s energy and maritime industries.
Hmmm, pay the Iranians 1% or Dump 20% for safe passage? This guy is a true idiot.
Rbabank captures the idiocy nicely.
…the market seems to be telling the US to ‘comfortably bomb’ – but only on the unspoken assumption that its attempts to keep Hormuz open work. That is our geopolitical base case given the historical track record and the overall stakes.
However, if it fails, and/or if Iran steps up its attacks against GCC energy and infrastructure regardless of the regional bridges (and refineries and desalination plants, etc) that it burns, then we would face a serious global energy crisis, and with much less left in the tank as potential mitigants.
At the least, the US –with midterms looming– would again have to pause until after them; and at the most, we could see the return of narratives heard a few months ago and still echoing in places – that the US is unable to use its military power to achieve its strategic goals, with enormous geopolitical and geoeconomic consequences.
The market is not sending any message. Trump has browbeaten it to death, and China has hoodwinked it. There is no military option to keep oil flowing through the straits while Russia and China supply missiles by air, road and rail.
Nor does Trump need to stop for the midterms. The greatest danger now is not abroad; it is at home.
By the elections, the SPR will be long empty and the oil price at $150-200 plus a huge crack spread. Pump prices could be insane.
He will attempt to destroy the republic with sky-high oil prices, fuel riots, and martial law.
None of these actions will be legal, as Dump always acts illegally. And by the time anyone challenges it, it’s too late. He at least partly owns the Supreme Court.
Dump will make a play to be the first emperor of what’s left of Pax Americana. God help us all if he does, because his wars will then expand everywhere.
The key to understanding Dump is that he must always be bigger than yesterday.
Whatever it takes.
